Brandon Zhou

Hoping for Karma: Magical Thinking and Prosocial Behavior in Uncertain Contexts

Advisor: Peter Schwardmann
Major: Behavioral Economics

Abstract

Uncertainty is a powerful driver of human behavior, yet its connection to moral decision-making remains poorly understood. Prior research finds that individuals tend to behave more prosocially in uncertain environments, a phenomenon termed uncertainty-motivated giving (Chen & Zhong, 2022). This project explores the mechanisms underlying such behavior: Do people give more under uncertainty because they believe that doing good will improve their odds — implicitly or explicitly — of a favorable outcome? Using a between-subjects design, participants will be randomly assigned to conditions varying in outcome uncertainty and Dictator Game allocation freedom. By setting varied levels of generosity, the study examines whether higher giving rates and uncertainty-motivated giving correlates with magical thinking — the belief that prosocial acts influence uncertain outcomes. Analyses will also test whether individuals who end up sharing more believe they have "done enough" to “earn” a better outcome. This research aims to disentangle the moral and cognitive elements of decision-making under uncertainty, offering new insight into how people reason about fairness in high-stakes environments.

Bio

I’m a Behavioral Economics student from the Bay Area. I previously worked in the Dynamic Decision Making Lab. At CMU, I’ve served as the director of finance in Student Government and compete on the university’s club ultimate frisbee team.