CMU Research Helps the Air Force 'Fuel More Fight'

By: Eric Heim, Thomas Longstaff

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) conducts training, combat, mobility, support, deterrence and other critical flight operations. Fueling these missions places a heavy financial burden on the USAF organizations that fly them. A team of researchers and engineers at the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) at Carnegie Mellon University is applying new AI and machine learning models that can reduce the fuel consumption of aircraft while USAF accomplishes the mission. This innovation has the potential to save the USAF millions of dollars in fuel every year.

Why it matters: The Department of the Air Force (DAF) uses 1.5 billion gallons of fuel annually at a cost of $5.5 billion. Even a relatively modest reduction in fuel usage results in significant savings for the United States. Today, many steps in flight mission planning are done manually, with limited capacity to identify mission plans that optimize fuel savings while maintaining mission outcomes. Tools that help automate the detection of fuel savings can be integrated into existing mission planning workflows to reduce the cost of performing flight operations.

The Challenge: Using ML to Identify Fuel Saving Opportunities for the Air Force 

Reducing the cost of flight missions for the USAF means that the savings can be reinvested elsewhere, potentially adding to or enhancing current air assets. Maintaining such a technological advantage over adversaries remains a critical focal point for the Department of Defense.

What we did: The SEI developed a machine learning (ML) prototype to optimize the USAF’s significant fuel costs. The ML tool estimates fuel savings from aircraft modifications with 0.5% percent accuracy, translating to millions of gallons saved per year. Delivered to the USAF’s Operational Energy Program in May 2024, the prototype automates what was previously a laborious manual process for DAF experts and, along with other tools created by the SEI, is expected to generate over $35 million in re-investable savings for fiscal year 2024 alone. The project exemplifies how the SEI collaborates with defense innovation accelerators like the Defense Innovation Unit to rapidly deliver data-driven solutions that enhance military readiness while reducing costs.

The way forward: The DAF’s Operational Energy program continues to apply the model developed by the SEI to reduce fuel costs. It is adding functionality to include more aircraft, expanding the applicability of the model to more of the USAF’s assets.