Powering Environmentally Sustainable AI
By: Nicholas Z. Muller and Valerie J. Karplus
Without policy, sharp increases in electricity generation driven by AI could have detrimental effects on public health.
Why it matters: The air pollution produced by fossil fuel-powered electricity generation exacerbates a range of adverse health outcomes, including premature mortality. These effects are most acutely borne by the elderly, the very young, and people with pre-existing health stressors.
Catch up quick: Over the past 10 to 15 years, numerous coal-fired power plants have retired in the U.S. Research shows the result of these plant closures has been major reductions in both air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
- Financial and insurance markets reveal additional resilience costs associated with GHG emissions and, by extension, continued reliance on fossil fuels to produce electricity.
- For example, rising costs from disasters including floods, wildfires, and hurricanes have resulted in dramatic increases in property insurance premiums in high-risk markets. Corporate insurers have also cancelled policies due to changes in the risk distribution. The result of these conditions has been a sharp increase in the risks faced by insured consumers and firms.
The main issue: Given the societal costs associated with high-emitting generation, expanding clean electricity supply to meet data center electricity needs while increasing system efficiency is a central need.
- Renewable energy, paired with a modest amount of clean firm electric power and energy storage, is likely to play an important role here.
- Incentives that encourage electrification in a manner that is coordinated with generation and transmission investments regionally to avoid imbalances, and system instabilities will be important to steady progress.
The jobs factor: Renewable electricity has also been a significant source of employment in the U.S.
- Recent data clearly suggest that the vast majority of new jobs in the electric power generation industries were due to deployment of clean energy technologies.
- And the total health benefits that come from retiring coal-fired power plants are many times greater than the lost salaries and wages resulting from the retirements.
Yes, but: Although national trends are encouraging, it is nevertheless essential to recognize and account for regional impacts.
- Renewable energy may not always emerge in places where fossil energy is in decline, and those who reap benefits may be different from those who face costs.
- In regions where the jobs impacts are most acute, providing targeted support for workers to transition to occupations with adjacent skills and commensurate pay is especially important.
Policy takeaways: Nuclear power, geothermal and electricity produced with renewables like wind and solar coupled with energy storage impose far fewer environmental and social costs than either natural gas or coal. And these sources of clean energy may provide important local economic stimulus and job creation, although targeted efforts to address impacts by region will be essential.
The bottom line: Carnegie Mellon University research shows that how the U.S. meets new load growth for AI will determine whether air quality and the climate are affected. Relying primarily on new natural gas (or even more so, reviving shuttered coal plants) will degrade local and regional air quality and public health.