Carnegie Mellon University

Urban Systems Modeling

Course Number: 12-735

This course will introduce graduate students to concepts of probabilistic risk assessment and decision making under uncertainty, with applications to infrastructure systems. Topics covered will include: a review of probability and utility theories, with emphasis on the Bayesian framework; an introduction on graphical models to describe the interdependence of system components; analytical methods to risk assessment (First Order Reliability Method) and numerical simulations (crude and advance Monte Carlo techniques). The student will learn how to quantify the risk, depending on the management policy selected, and how to update the assessment by analyzing observations on the system performance.

Semester(s): Spring
Units: 12


  • Lectures
  • Project Exercises
  • Class Demonstrations


Textbook information can be found at the CMU Bookstore