Carnegie Mellon University

Baruch Fischhoff

Baruch Fischhoff

Howard Heinz University Professor
Engineering and Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology

Department of Engineering and Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University
5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA 15213


  • Carnegie Mellon 1987-

Baruch Fischhoff, Ph.D., is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department Engineering and Public Policy and the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a BS in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an MA and PhD in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and of the National Academy of Medicine. He is past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis, and recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award. He was founding chair of the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee and chaired the National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security and co-chaired the National Research Council Committee on Future Research Goals and Directions for Foundational Science in Cybersecurity and three National Academy of Sciences Colloquia on “The Science of Science Communication.” He is a former member of the Eugene, Oregon Commission on the Rights of Women, Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board, where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), American Psychological Association (APA), the Association for Psychological Science, the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Society for Risk Analysis. He has received APA’s Award for Distinguished Service to Psychology, an honorary Doctorate of Humanities from Lund University, an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, and Carnegie Mellon's Ryan Award for Teaching, and the College of Engineering Outstanding Mentor Award. He has co-authored or edited, Acceptable Risk (1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (1993), Elicitation of Preferences (2000), Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach (2002), Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Science Foundations (2011), Risk: A Very Short Introduction (2011), Communicating Risks and Benefits: An Evidence-Based Guide (2011), Judgment and Decision Making (2011), Risk Analysis and Human Behavior (2011), The Science of Science Communication I (2013), II (2014), and III (2019), and Counting Civilian Casualties (2013).

Intellegence Tomorrow Judgment Risk
Risk PNAS PNAS Communications
Risk kort Risk riesgo PNAS


  • Ph.D. (Psychology) 1975, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
  • M.A. (Psychology) 1972, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
  • B.Sc. (Mathematics, Psychology) 1967, Wayne State University


Rachel Carson Distinguished Lecture, February 2024

Anastasi Lecture Series, Fordham University

Clarendon Lectures in Management, University of Oxford, April 18-20, 2023

Tribute to Baruch Fischhoff

Selected Publications

In Press

Dunning, R., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (in press). When do humans heed AI agents’ advice? When should they? Human Factors

Kenny, R., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., Carley, K.M., & Canfield, C. (in press). Duped by bots: Why some are better than others at detecting fake social media. Human Factors.

Kenny, R., Fischhoff, Davis, A.L., and Canfield, C. (in press). Improving social bot detection through aid and training. Human Factors


COVID Crisis Group. (2023). Lessons from the COVID War: An investigative report. New York: Public Affairs. One of 35 members. Philip Zelikow, lead author.

Fischhoff, B., Cetron, M., & Jetelina, K. (2023). Do masks work? Randomized controlled trials are the worst way to answer the question. STAT

Fischhoff, B., Woloshin, S., Krishnamurti, T., & Dewitt, B. (2023). Patients may finally receive practical information about prescriptions – if the FDA doesn’t blow it. STAT

Grayek, E., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Hu, L., Babich, O., Warren, K., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Collection and analysis of adherence information for software as a medical device clinical trials: A systematic reviewJMIR mHealth and uHealth, 11:e46237.

Haward, M.F., Lorenz, J.M., Janvier, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Antenatal consultation and deliberation: Adapting to patients’ preferences. Journal of Perinatology.

Kleeman, H., Fischhoff, B., & Armanios, D.E. (2023). Effects of redesigning the communication of low-income residential energy efficiency programs in the U.S. Energy Policy, 178, 113568.

Morgan, K., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Mental models for scientists communicating with the public. Issues in Science and Technology 39(2), 58-61.

Rodriguez, V.L., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2023). Risk heatmaps as visual displays: Opening movie studios after the COVID-19 shutdown. Risk Analysis, 43, 1356-1359.

Woloshin, S., Yang, Y., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Communicating health information with visual displays: An illustrated design guide. Nature Medicine


Drummond Otten, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2022). Calibration of scientific reasoning ability. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Grayek, E.N., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Krishnamurti, T. (2022).  The value of adherence information during clinical pharmaceutical trials. Clinical Trials, 19(3), 326-336.

Grayek, E., Yang, Y., Fischhoff, B., Schifferdecker, K.E., Woloshin, S., Kerlikowski, K., Miglioretti, D., & Tosteson, A. (2022). A procedure for eliciting women’s preferences for breast cancer screening frequency. Medical Decision Making, 42(6), 783-794.

Greenberg, M., & Lowrie, K. (2022). Baruch Fischhoff: Creating, testing, and communicating theories about risk perception, public preferences, and communication. Risk Analysis, 42, 1895-1899.

Woloshin, S., Dewitt, B., Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B. (2022).  Assessing how consumers interpret and act on results from at-home COVID-19 self-test kits: A randomized clinical trial. JAMA Internal Medicine, 182(3), 332-341.


Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2021).  Assessing broader impacts of funded research: The United States National Science Foundation vs. Rep. Lamar Smith.  Science and Public Policy. DOI:

Fischhoff, B. (2021).  The COVID communication breakdown. Foreign Affairs.

Fischhoff, B.  (2021).  Making behavioral science integral to climate science and action.  Behavioural Public Policy, 5(4) 439-453. 

Fischhoff, B., Dewitt, B., Sahlin, N-E., & Davis, A.L. (2021). A secure procedure for early career scientists to report apparent misconduct. Life Sciences, Society and Policy.  doi: 10.1186/s40504-020-00110-6 [

Fischhoff, B., Gamble, V.N., & Shoch-Spana, M. (2021).  Understanding and communicating about COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, effectiveness, and equity.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

Garfin, D.R., Fischhoff, B., Holman, E.A., & Silver, R.C.  (2021).  Risk perceptions and health behaviors as COVID-19 in the United States: Results from a probability-based nationally representative sampleJournal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 27, 584-598.  doi: 10.1037/xap0000374

Haward, M.F., Lorenz, J.M., Janvier, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2021). Bereaved parents’ insights for the antenatal consultation. American Journal of Perinatology.

Mohan, D., Chang, C.-C., Fischhoff, B., Rosengart, M.R., Angus, D.C., Yealy, D.M., & Barnato, A.E. (2021). Outcome of a digital behavioral intervention to improve trauma triage: analysis of Medicare claims. Journal of Surgical Research, 268, 532-539. 


Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., & Fischhoff, B. (2020).  Decision making competence: More than intelligence?  Current Directions in Psychological Science, 29(2), 186-192. 

Fischhoff, B.  (2020).  Making decisions in a COVID-19 worldJAMA, 323(22). doi:10.1001/jama.2020.10178

Fischhoff, B.  (2020).  The microbiomes of gut-level decisionsCQ (Critical Quarterly), 62(1), 30--37.

Fischhoff, B., & Broomell, S.B.  (2020).  Judgment and decision making.  Annual Review of Psychology, 71. 331-355. doi: 10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050747

NASEM. (2020). Framework for equitable allocation of covid-19 vaccine. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press 

NASEM. (2020).  Rapid expert consultation on the effectiveness of fabric masks for the COVID-19 pandemic (letter report).  R. Besser & B. Fischhoff, authors.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

Soares-Weiser, K., Lasserson, T., Jorgensen, K.J., Woloshin, S., Bero, L., Brown, B., & Fischhoff, B. (2020). Policy makers must act on incomplete evidence in responding to COVID-19 (Editorial).  Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (11), ED000149 

World Health Organization.  (2020).  The importance of testing messages.  Fiona Fleck interviews Baruch Fischhoff. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 98, 516-517.


Arnold, J., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., ...., & Hanmer, J.Z. (2019). Comparing the predictive ability of a commercial artificial intelligence early warning system with physician judgment for clinical deterioration in hospitalized general internal medicine patients, a prospective observational study.  BMJ Open, 9, e032187. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-03218

Canfield, C., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L.  (2019).  Better beware: Comparing metacognition for phishing and legitimate emails. Metacognition and Learning, 14(3), 343-362.  doi:10.1007/s11409-019-09197-5

Dewitt, D., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., Broomell, S.B., Roberts, M., Hanmer, J. (2019).  Exclusion criteria as measurements I: Identifying invalid responses. Medical Decision Making, 39(6), 693-703. doi: 10.1177/0272989X19856617

Dewitt, D., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., Broomell, S.B., Roberts, M., Hanmer, J. (2019).  Exclusion criteria as measurements II: Effects on utility curves. Medical Decision Making, 39(6), 704-716. soe: 10.1177/0272989X19862542

Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., & Sahlin, N-E. (2019). “Moral machine” experiment is no basis for policy making (Correspondence). Nature, 567, 31.

Fischhoff, B., & Barnato, A.E.  (2019).  Value awareness: A goal for end-of-life decision making.  Medical Decision Making Policy and Practice. doi: 10.1177/2381468318817523

Fischhoff, B. (2019). Evaluating science communication. PNAS, 116(16), 7670-7675.

Fischhoff, B. (2019).  Tough calls.  Scientific American, 321(3), 74-79.

Kulkarni, S., Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Rosengart, M.R., Angus, D.C., Saul, M., Yealy, D.M., & Mohan, D.  (2019).  Defining the representativeness heuristic in trauma triage: a retrospective observational cohort study. PLOSOne 14(2): e0212201.

Yang, Y., Wong-Parodi, G., & Fischhoff. (2019).  "How Stable Are Preferences among Emerging Electricity Generation Technologies."  Environmental Research Communications, 1(7).

Yu, M., Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B.  (2019).  Implementing a new Common Rule requirement for informed consent: A randomized trial on adult asthma patients.  Medical Decision Making Policy and Practice. doi: 10.1177/2381468319839315


Canfield, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2018). Setting priorities for behavioral interventions: An application to reducing phishing risks. Risk Analysis, 38(4),826-838. doi: 10.1111/risa.12917

Fischhoff, B., Wong-Parodi, G., Garfin, D., Holman, E.A., & Silver, R. (2018). Public understanding of Ebola risks: Mastering an unfamiliar threat. Risk Analysis, 38(1), 71-83. doi: 10.1111/risa.12794

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., Rosengart, M.R., Wallace, D.J., Yealy, D.M., Farris, C., Chang, C.-C.H., Kerti, S., & Barnato, A.E. (2018).  Serious video games may improve physicians’ heuristics in trauma triage.  PNAS, 115(37), 9204-9209.

Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Weller, J. (2018). Robustness of decision-making competence:  Evidence from two measures and an 11-year longitudinal study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 380-391. doi: 10.1002/bdm.2059


Atran, S., Axelrod, R., Davis, R., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Challenges in researching terrorism from the fieldScience, 355(6323), 352-354. doi: 10.1126/science.aaj2037

Bruine de Bruin, A., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017).  Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economistsPNAS, 114(13), 3297-3304. doi/10.1073/pnas.1615461114

Canfield, C., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., Forget, A., Pearman, S., & Thomas, J.  (2017).  Replication: Challenges in using data logs to validate phishing detection ability metrics.  Symposium on Usable Privacy and Security (SOUPS) 2017.

Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Hanmer, J.  (2017). An approach to reconciling competing ethical principles in aggregating heterogeneous health preferencesMedical Decision Making, 37, 647-656. doi: 10.1177/0272989X17696999

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2017). Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topicsPNAS, 114, 9587-9592. doi:10.1073/pnas.1704882114

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Development and validation of the Scientific Reasoning ScaleJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 30(1), 26-38. doi: 10.1002/bdm.1906

Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Breaking ground for psychological science: The U.S. Food and Drug AdministrationAmerican Psychologist, 72(2). 118-125.

Haward, M., Janvier, A., Lorenz, J.M., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Counseling parents at risk of delivery of an extremely premature infant: Differing strategiesAmerican Journal of Bioethics – Empirical Methods,8(4), 243-252.   doi: 10.1080/23294515.2017.1394399

Klein, O., Hegarty, P., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Hindsight forty years onMemory Studies, 10(3), 249-260.

Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., Sadovsky, Y., & Simhan, H. (2017). MyHealthyPregnancy: A feasibility pilot of a behavioral decision research-based tool for assessing and communicating pregnancy risk. JMIR mHealth uHealth, 5(4), e 42. doi:10.2196/mhealth.7036

Mohan, D., Farris, C., Fischhoff, B., Rosengart, M.R., et al.. (2017). Testing the efficacy of a video game vs. a traditional education program at improving physician decision making in trauma triage: a randomized controlled trial. BMJ, 359, j5416. doi: MJ2017;359:j5416 


Canfield, C., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L.  (2016). Quantifying phishing susceptibility for detection and behavior decisions. Human Factors, 58(8), 1158-1172.  doi: 10.1177/0018720816665025

Wong-Parodi, G., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Schwartz, D., & Fischhoff, B.  (2016). Integrating social science in climate and energy solutions: A decision science approachNature Climate Change, 6, 563-569.  doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2917


Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Broomell, S.  (2015).  Environmental risk perception from visual cues: Caution and sensitivity in evaluating tornado risksEnvironmental Research Letters, 10, 124009. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124009

Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysisScience, 350(6260), 527.

Fischhoff, B. (2015).  Risk perception and communication.  In R. Detels, M. Gulliford, Karim, Q.A., & Tan, C.C. (eds.), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Sixth Edition (7.5).  Oxford: Oxford University Press.  doi: 10.1093/med/9780199661756.003.0138

Krishnamurti, T., Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., & Fischhoff, B.  (2015).  A randomized trial testing FDA "breakthrough" languageJAMA Internal Medicine.

Wong-Parodi, G., & Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The impacts of political cues and practical information on climate change decisionsEnvironmental Research Letters, 10. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034004.


Davis, A.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2014). Communicating uncertain experimental evidenceJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40, 261-274.s

Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671.

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Farris, C., Switzer, G.E., et al. (2014). Validating a vignette-based instrument to study physician decision making in trauma triageMedical Decision Making, 32, 242-252.

Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., & Strauss, B. (2014). A method to evaluate the usability of interactive climate change impact decision aids. Climatic Change, 126, 485-493.


Davis, A.L., Krishnamurti, T., Fischhoff, B., & Bruine de Bruin, W.  (2013).  Setting a standard for electricity pilot studies.  Energy Policy, 62, 401-409.

Fischhoff, B.  (2013). The sciences of science communication.  PNAS, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. doi/10.1073/pnas.1213273110

Halpern, B.S., Longo, C., McLeod, K.L., Cooke, R., Fischhoff, B., Samhouri, J.F., & Scarborough.  (2013).  Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current.  Marine Policy, 42(1), 68-73.

Kadane, J.B., & Fischhoff, B.  (2013).  A cautionary note on global recalibrationJudgment and Decision Making, 8(1), 25-28.

Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B. (2013, May 22). Teenagers can handle Plan BPittsburgh Post Gazette.

Schwartz, D., Fischhoff, B., Krishnamurti, T., & Sowell, F.  (2013). The Hawthorne Effect and energy awareness.  PNAS, 110(38), 15242-15246. doi/10.1073/pnas.1301687110


Farris, C. & Fischhoff, B. (2012). A decision science informed approach to sexual risk and non-consent.  Clinical and Translational Science, 5, 482-485.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012, Summer).  Communicating uncertainty: Fulfilling the duty to inform.  Issues in Science and Technology, 29, 63-70.

Fischhoff, B. (2012). Good decisions require good communicationDrug Safety, 35, 983-993.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012).  Robyn Mason Dawes (1936-2010).  American Psychologist, 67, 319-320.

Fischhoff, B., & Eggers, S. (2012). Questions of competence: The duty to inform and the limits to choice. In E. Shafir (ed.), The behavioral foundations of policy (pp. 217-230).  Princeton: Princeton University Press.


Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else).  American Psychologist, 66, 520-531.

Fischhoff, B., Brewer, N., & Downs, J.S.  (eds.).  (2011). Communicating risks and benefits: An evidence-based user’s guide.  Washington, DC: Food and Drug Administration. 

Fischhoff, B., & Chauvin, C. (eds.).  (2011).  Intelligence analysis: Behavioral and social science foundations.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

Fischhoff, B., & Kadvany, J.  (2011).  Risk: A very short introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 

Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The emotions of the nuclear experts. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

National Research Council.  (2011). Intelligence analysis for tomorrow. Washington, DC: Author (Consensus Report).

Pidgeon, N., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks.   Nature Climate Change, 1(1), 35-41.

Silver, R.C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  What should we expect after the next attack?  American Psychologist, 66, 567-572.


Fischhoff, B. (2010). Judgment and decision making. Wily Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science. New York: Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., Millstein, S.G, & Halpern-Felsher, B.L. (2010). Adolescents' perceived risk of dyingJournal of Adolescent Health, 46(3), 265-269.

Kaptan, G., & Fischhoff, B. (2010). Sticky decisions: Peanut butter in a time of SalmonellaEmerging Infectious Disease, 16, 900-904.


Bruine de Bruin, W., Güvenç, Ü., Fischhoff, B., Armstrong, C.M., & Caruso, D. (2009). Communicating about xenotransplanation: Models and scenariosRisk Analysis, 29(8), 1105-1115.

Fischhoff, B. (2009, 17 February). The nuclear energy industry's communication problemBulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (2009). The science and practice of risk rankingHorizons, 10(3), 40-47.


Casman, E. & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Risk communication planning for the aftermath of a plague bioattackRisk Analysis, 28(5), 1327-42.

Downs, J. S., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Parents' vaccination comprehension and decisionsVaccine, 26, 1595-1607.

Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28, 12-28.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Sageman, M. (2008) Mutually Assured Support: A Security Doctrine for Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Threats. In R. Clarke (ed.), Terrorism Briefing for the New President, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 618, 160-167.

Krishnamurti, T.P., Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). The impact of over-the-counter availability of "Plan B" on teens' contraceptive decision makingSocial Science and Medicine, 67, 618-627.


Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007) Individual Differences in Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92, 938-956.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Communicating with the public: Before, during, and after emergencies. (in Chinese) China Emergency Management, 16-19.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Non-Persuasive Communication about Matters of Greatest Urgency: Climate ChangeEnvironmental Science & Technology, 41, 7204-7208.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). An early history of hindsight researchSocial Cognition, 25, 10-13.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful recordsJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19.

Florig, K., & Fischhoff, B.  (2007).  Individuals’ decisions affecting radiation exposure after a nuclear event. Health Physics, 92, 475-483.

National Research Council. (2007). Risk comparisonsScientific Reviews of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget (pp.37-8). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff. B. (2007).  Maximizers vs. satisficers: Decision-making styles, competence and outcomes.  Judgment and Decision Making, 2(6), 342-350.


Apt, J. & Fischhoff, B. (2006). Power and peopleElectricity Journal, 19(9), 17-25.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Brilliant, L., & Caruso, D. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks. Global Public Health 1(2), 178-193.

Fischhoff, B.  (2006, May). Communication: Getting straight talk right.  Harvard Business Review, 8.

Fischhoff, B.  (2006, May).  Modeling: Visualizing your vulnerabilities.  Harvard Business Review, 8-11.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu exampleJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 33, 133-151.


Fischhoff, B. (2005). Cognitive processes in stated preference methods. In K-G. Maler & J. Vincent (Eds.), Handbook of Environmental Economics (pp. 937-968). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision research strategiesHealth Psychology, 21(4), S1-S8.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, August 7). A hero in every aisle seatNew York Times. Retrieved from

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Thinking about the indeterminate. Review of R.A. Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, (New York: Oxford University Press). Issues in Science and Technology, 21(4), 82-84.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, October 2). We need the right words to weather the stormWashington Post. Retrieved from

Fischhoff, B. (2005), President's columns from the Society for Risk Analysis RISK Newsletter.

Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R.M., Lerner, J.S., & Small, D.A.  (2005). Evolving judgments of terror risks: Foresight, hindsight, and emotionJournal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 11, 124-139.

Parker, A. & Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 1-27.


Downs, J. S. Murray, P. J., Bruine de Bruin, W., White, J. P., Palmgren, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). An interactive video program to reduce adolescent females' STD risk: A randomized controlled trialSocial Science and Medicine, 59, 1561-1572.

Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). Setting Policies for Consumer Communications: A Behavioral Decision Research ApproachJournal of Public Policy and Marketing, 23, 14-27.


Gregory, R., Fischhoff, B., Butte, G., & Thorne, S. (2003). A multi-channel stakeholder consultation process for transmission deregulationEnergy Policy, 31, 1291-9.

Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R., Small, D., & Lerner, J. (2003). Evaluating the success of terror risk communications. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 1(4), 255-258.

Fischhoff, B., & Wesseley, S. (2003). Managing patients with inexplicable health problemsBritish Medical Journal, 326, 595-597.


Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischbeck, P.S., Stiber, N.A., & Fischhoff, B.  (2002).  What number is “fifty-fifty”? Distributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilitiesRisk Analysis, 22, 725-735.

Löfstedt, R., Fischhoff, B., & Fischhoff, I. (2002). Precautionary principles: General definitions and specific applications to genetically modified organisms (GMOs)Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21, 381-407.


Florig, H.K., Morgan, M.G., Morgan, K.M., Jenni, K.E., Fischhoff, B., Fischbeck, P.S., & DeKay, M.  (2001).  A deliberative method for ranking risks (1): Overview and test bed developmentRisk Analysis, 21, 913-922.

Morgan, K.M., DeKay, M.L., Fischbeck, P.S., Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., & Florig, H.K.  (2001).  A deliberative method for ranking risks (2): Evaluation of validity and agreement among risk managersRisk Analysis, 21, 923-938.

Riley, D.M., Fischhoff, B., Small, M., & Fischbeck, P.  (2001). Evaluating the effectiveness of risk-reduction strategies for consumer chemical productsRisk Analysis, 21, 357-369.


Fischhoff, B. (2000). Scientific management of science? Policy Sciences, 33, 73-87.

Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C., Dawes, R.M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life eventsPublic Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189-205.

Long, J., & Fischhoff, B. (2000).  Setting risk priorities: A formal modelRisk Analysis, 20, 339-351.

Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S.J., Sox, H.C., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000) Women's understanding of the mammography screening debateArchives of Internal Medicine, 160(10), 1434-40.


Fischhoff, B. (1999). What do patients want? Help in making effective choicesEffective Clinical Practice, 2, 198-200.

Fischhoff, B.  (1999).  Why (cancer) risk communication can be hard.  Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, 25, 7-13.

Fischhoff, B., Welch, N., & Frederick, S.  (1999).  Construal processes in preference elicitation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 139-164.


Fischhoff, B., Downs, J., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1998). Adolescent vulnerability: A framework for behavioral interventionsApplied and Preventive Psychology, 7, 77-94.

Frederick, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1998). Scope insensitivity in elicited valuesRisk Decision and Policy, 3, 109-124.


Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232-248.


Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of processRisk Analysis, 15, 137-145.


Bostrom, A., Atman, C.J., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G.  (1994).  Evaluating risk communications:  Completing and correcting mental models of hazardous processes. Part 2Risk Analysis, 14, 789-798. 

Bostrom, A., Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B. & Read, D.  (1994).  What do people know about global climate change?  Part 1.  Mental modelsRisk Analysis, 14, 959-970.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). Acceptable risk: A conceptual proposalRisk: Health, Safety & Environment, 1, 1-28.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) meanInternational Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Read, D., Bostrom, A., Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., & Smuts, T.  (1994).  What do people know about global climate change?  Part 2.  Survey studies of educated laypeopleRisk Analysis, 14, 971-982.


Fischhoff, B. (1993). Transaction analysis: A framework and an application to insurance decisionsJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 53-69.

Maharik, M., & Fischhoff, B.  (1993).  Public views of using nuclear energy sources in space missionsSpace Policy, 9, 99-108.

Quadrel, M.J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W.  (1993).  Adolescent (in)vulnerabilityAmerican Psychologist, 48, 102-116.


Bostrom, A., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (1992).  Characterizing mental models of hazardous processes: A methodology and an application to radonJournal of Social Issues, 48(4), 85-100.

Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assaultAmerican Psychologist,47(4), 577-588.


Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M.J., & Furby, L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.) Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19-60). London, UK: Routledge

Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in thereAmerican Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847.


Fischhoff, B. (1990). Psychology and public policy: Tool or tool maker? American Psychologist, 45, 657-663.

Roth, E., Morgan, G., Fischhoff, B., Lave, L., & Bostrom, A. (1990).  What do we know about making risk comparisons?  Risk Analysis, 10, 375-387.


Furby, L., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M. (1989). Judged effectiveness of common rape prevention and self-defense strategiesJournal of Interpersonal Violence, 4, 44-64

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Risk: A guide to controversyAppendix to National Research Council. Improving risk communications (pp. 211-319).Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.


Blackshaw, L., & Fischhoff, B.  (1988).  Decision making in online searchJournal of American Society for Information Sciences, 39, 369-389.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1988). Measuring values: A conceptual framework for interpreting transactions with special reference to contingent valuation of visibilityJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 147-184

Furby, L., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Gregory, R.  (1988).  Public perceptions of electric power transmission lines.  Journal of Environmental Psychology, 8(1), 19-43.


Fischhoff, B., MacGregor, D., & Blackshaw, L. (1987). Creating categories for databasesInternational Journal of Man-Machine Systems, 27, 33-63.


Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798


Svenson, O., & Fischhoff, B.   (1985).  Levels of environmental decisions.  Journal of Environmental Psychology, 5, 55-68.


Fischhoff, B., Watson, S., & Hope, C. (1984). Defining riskPolicy Sciences, 17, 123-139.

Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823-843.

Fischhoff, B. & Bar-Hillel, M.  (1984).  Diagnosticity and the base-rate effect.  Memory and Cognition, 12, 402-410.

 Fischhoff, B. & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984).  Focusing techniques:  A shortcut to improving probability judgments?  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 34(2), 175-191.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Page, R.T., & MacLean, D. (1984).  Editorial.  Nuclear power:  Time for detente. Risk Analysis, 4, 153.

Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B.  (1984).  Modeling the societal impact of fatal accidents.  Management Science, 30, 464-474.


Fischhoff, B. (1983). Acceptable risk: The case of nuclear powerJournal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2, 559-575.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Predicting framesJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory & Cognition, 9, 113-116.

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R.  (1983).  Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspectivePsychological Review, 90, 239-260.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1983). Psychological dimensions of climatic change. In R. S. Chen, E. Boulding and S. H. Schneider (Eds.), Social science research and climate change (pp. 183-203). Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.

Fischhoff, B. & MacGregor, D.  (1983).  Judged lethality:  How much people seem to know depends upon how they are asked.  Risk Analysis, 3, 229-236.


Fischhoff, B.  (1982).  Debiasing.  In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422-444).  New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1982).   Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about riskAmerican Statistician, 1982, 36, 240-255;

Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L.D.  (1982). Calibration of probabilities: State of the art to 1980.  In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under uncertainty:  Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334).  New York: Cambridge University Press

Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B.  (1982).  Targeting risks: Comments on Wilde's "Theory of Risk Homeostasis."  Risk Analysis, 2, 227-234.

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1982).  Why study risk perceptions? Risk Analysis, 2, 83-93.


Bar-Hillel, M & Fischhoff, B.  (1981).  When do base rates affect predictions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41, 671-680.

Fischhoff, B. (1981). Hot air: The psychology of CO2-induced climatic change. In J. Harvey (Ed.), Cognition, social behavior and the environment (pp. 163-184). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.


Fischhoff, B.  (1980).  Clinical decision analysisOperations Research, 28, 28-43. 

Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment. In R. A. Shweder and D. W. Fiske (Eds.), New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, (4) pp. 79-93. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1980).  Reasons for confidenceJournal of Experimental Psychology:  Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118.

Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1980).   Training for calibration.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149-171.

Murphy, A.H., Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Winkler, R.L.  (1980).  Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 61, 695-701.


Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1979).  Subjective sensitivity analysis.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 23, 339-359.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1979).  Weighing the risks. Environment, 21(5), 17-20, 32-38. 

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1979). Rating the risksEnvironment, 21(4), 14-20, 36-39.


Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1978).  Fault trees: Sensitivity of assessed failure probabilities to problem representationJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330-344.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S. & Combs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefitsPolicy Sciences, 9(2), 127-152.

Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B, Layman, M. & Combs, B.  (1978).  Judged frequency of lethal eventsJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551-578.  .


Beyth-Marom, R. & Fischhoff, B.  (1977).  Direct measures of availability and judgments of category frequencyBulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 9, 236-238.

Fischhoff, B. (1977). Cost-benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenancePolicy Sciences, 8(2), 177-202.

Fischhoff, B.  (1977).  Perceived informativeness of factsJournal of Experimental Psychology:  Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349-358.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1977).  Knowing with certainty:  The appropriateness of extreme confidence.  Journal of Experimental Psychology:  Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552-564.

Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1977).  Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?  The calibration of probability judgments.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183.

Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprisesJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., Corrigan, B. & Combs, B.  (1977).  Preference for insuring against probable small losses: Implications for the theory and practice of insuranceJournal of Risk and Insurance, 44, 237-258.  

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1977).  Behavioral decision theory.  Annual Review of Psychology, 28, 1-39.


Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R. (1974). Failure has many fathers. Review of I. Janis, Victims of Groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes. Reprinted (1976) in Policy Sciences, 7(3), 388-393.


Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R.  (1975).  "I knew it would happen"--Remembered probabilities of once-future things.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1-16.

Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertaintyJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299.


Koriat, A. & Fischhoff, B.  (1974).  What day is today?  An inquiry into the process of time orientation.  Memory and Cognition, 2, 201-205.