Carnegie Mellon University

Baruch Fischhoff

Baruch Fischhoff

Howard Heinz University Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Institute for Politics and Strategy

Address Department of Engineering and Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University
5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA 15213


  • Carnegie Mellon 1987-

BARUCH FISCHHOFF, Ph.D., is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the departments of Institute for Politics and Strategy and of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a BS in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an MA and PhD in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and of the National Academy of Medicine. He is past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis, and recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award. He was founding chair of the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee and recently chaired the National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security and currently co-chairs the National Research Council Committee on Future Research Goals and Directions for Foundational Science in Cybersecurity and the National Academy of Sciences Sackler Colloquium on “The Science of Science Communication.” He is a former member of the Eugene, Oregon Commission on the Rights of Women, Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board, where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of the American Psychological Association, the Association for Psychological Science (previously the American Psychological Society), the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Society for Risk Analysis. He has co-authored or edited eleven books, Acceptable Risk (1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (1993), Elicitation of Preferences (2000), Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach (2002), Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Science Foundations (2011), Risk: A Very Short Introduction (2011), Communicating Risks and Benefits: An Evidence-Based Guide (2011), Judgment and Decision Making (2011), Risk Analysis and Human Behavior (2011), The Science of Science Communication (2013), and Counting Civilian Casualties (2013).

Intellegence Tomorrow Judgment Risk
Risk PNAS PNAS Communications
Risk kort Risk riesgo PNAS


  • Ph.D. (Psychology) 1975, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
  • M.A. (Psychology) 1972, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
  • B.Sc. (Mathematics, Psychology) 1967, Wayne State University

Selected Publications

[For publications that are not available here, please contact Katie Slater]

In Press
Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Hanmer, J.  (in press).  An approach to reconciling competing ethical principles in aggregating heterogeneous health preferences.  Medical Decision Making. DOI: 10.1177/0272989X17696999

Fischhoff, B., Wong-Parodi, G., Garfin, D., Silver, R., & Holman, E.A.  (in press).  Public understanding of Ebola risks: Mastering an unfamiliar threat. Risk Analysis. doi: 10.1111/risa.12794

Bruine de Bruin, A., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017).  Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economistsPNAS, 114(13), 3297-3304. doi/10.1073/pnas.1615461114

Canfield, C., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., Forget, A., Pearman, S., & Thomas, J.  (2017).  Replication: Challenges in using data logs to validate phishing detection ability metrics.  Symposium on Usable Privacy and Security (SOUPS) 2017.

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017).  Development and validation of the Scientific Reasoning ScaleJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 30(1), 26-38. doi: 10.1002/bdm.1906

Klein, O., Hegarty, P., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017).  Hindsight forty years onMemory Studies, 10(3), 249-260.

Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., Sadovsky, Y., & Simhan, H. (2017).  MyHealthyPregnancy: A feasibility pilot of a behavioral decision research-based tool for assessing and communicating pregnancy risk. JMIR mHealth uHealth, 5(4), e 42. doi:10.2196/mhealth.7036

Wong-Parodi, G., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Schwartz, D., & Fischhoff, B.  (2016). Integrating social science in climate and energy solutions: A decision science approachNature Climate Change, 6, 563-569.  doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2917

Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysisScience, 350(6260), 527.

Schwartz, D., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Lave, L.  (2015).  Advertising energy saving programs: The potential environmental costs of emphasizing monetary savings.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 21(2), 158-166.  doi: 10.1037/xap0000042

Wong-Parodi, G., & Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The impacts of political cues and practical information on climate change decisionsEnvironmental Research Letters, 10. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034004.

Davis, A.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2014). Communicating uncertain experimental evidenceJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40, 261-274.s

Fischhoff, B. (2014). Better decisions: From the lab to the real worldPolicy Options, 43(3), 53-55.

Fischhoff, B. (2014). Ethical and social issues in military research and development. Telos, 169, 150-154.

Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671.

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Farris, C., Switzer, G.E., et al. (2014). Validating a vignette-based instrument to study physician decision making in trauma triageMedical Decision Making, 32, 242-252.

Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., & Strauss, B. (2014). A method to evaluate the usability of interactive climate change impact decision aids. Climate Change, 126, 485-493. doi:10.1007/2s10584-014-1226-9

Fischhoff, B.  (2013). The sciences of science communication.  PNAS, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. doi/10.1073/pnas.1213273110

Halpern, B.S., Longo, C., McLeod, K.L., Cooke, R., Fischhoff, B., Samhouri, J.F., & Scarborough.  (2013).  Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current.  Marine Policy, 42, 68-73.

Kadane, J.B., & Fischhoff, B.  (2013).  A cautionary note on global recalibrationJudgment and Decision Making, 8(1), 25-28.

Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B. (2013, May 22). Teenagers can handle Plan BPittsburgh Post Gazette.

Schwartz, D., Fischhoff, B., Krishnamurti, T., & Sowell, F.  (2013). The Hawthorne Effect and energy awareness.  PNAS, 110(38), 15242-15246. doi/10.1073/pnas.1301687110

Farris, C. & Fischhoff, B. (2012). A decision science informed approach to sexual risk and non-consent.  Clinical and Translational Science, 5, 482-485.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012, Summer).  Communicating uncertainty: Fulfilling the duty to inform.  Issues in Science and Technology, 29, 63-70.

Fischhoff, B. (2012). Good decisions require good communicationDrug Safety, 35, 983-993.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012, February).  Decision making: Behaviorally realistic solutions to environmental problems.  livebetter, no. 17.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012).  Robyn Mason Dawes (1936-2010).  American Psychologist, 67, 319-320.

Fischhoff, B., & Eggers, S. (2012). Questions of competence: The duty to inform and the limits to choice. In E. Shafir (ed.), The behavioral foundations of policy (pp. 217-230).  Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Mohan, D., Rosengart, M.R., Farris, C., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., & Barnato, A.E.  (2012). Sources of non-compliance with clinical practice guidelines in trauma triage: a decision science study.  Implementation Science, 7, 103.


Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else).  American Psychologist, 66, 520-531.

Fischhoff, B., Brewer, N., & Downs, J.S.  (eds.).  (2011). Communicating risks and benefits: An evidence-based user’s guide.  Washington, DC: Food and Drug Administration. 

Fischhoff, B., & Chauvin, C. (eds.).  (2011).  Intelligence analysis: Behavioral and social science foundations.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

Fischhoff, B., & Kadvany, J.  (2011).  Risk: A very short introduction.  Oxford: Oxford University Press. 

Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The emotions of the nuclear experts.  Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

National Research Council.  (2011). Intelligence analysis for tomorrow.  Washington, DC: Author (Consensus Report).

Pidgeon, N., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks.   Nature Climate Change, 1(1), 35-41.

Silver, R.C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  What should we expect after the next attack?  American Psychologist, 66, 567-572.

Fischhoff, B. (2010). Judgment and decision making. Wily Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science. New York: Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., Millstein, S.G, & Halpern-Felsher, B.L. (2010). Adolescents' perceived risk of dyingJournal of Adolescent Health, 46(3), 265-269.

John, L.K., & Fischhoff, B. (2010). Changes of heart: Assessing the stability of medical choices with a naturalistic task. Medical Decision Making, 30, 388-397.

Kaptan, G., & Fischhoff, B. (2010). Sticky decisions: Peanut butter in a time of SalmonellaEmerging Infectious Disease, 16, 900-904.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Güvenç, Ü., Fischhoff, B., Armstrong, C.M., & Caruso, D. (2009). Communicating about xenotransplanation: Models and scenariosRisk Analysis, 29(8), 1105-1115.

Fischhoff, B. (2009, 17 February). The nuclear energy industry's communication problemBulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved January 2010 from

Fischhoff, B. (2009). Public competence in sciencePeople and Science, 1(2), 27.

Fischhoff, B. (2009). Risk Perception and Communication. In R. Detels, R. Beaglehole, M.A. Lansang, and M. Gulliford (Eds), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Fifth Edition (pp. 940-952). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Reprinted in N.K. Chater (Ed.), Judgement and Decision Making. London: Sage.

Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (2009). The science and practice of risk rankingHorizons, 10(3), 40-47.

Casman, E. & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Risk communication planning for the aftermath of a plague bioattackRisk Analysis, 28(5), 1327-42.

Downs, J. S., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Parents' vaccination comprehension and decisionsVaccine, 26, 1595-1607.

Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28, 12-28.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Sageman, M. (2008) Mutually Assured Support: A Security Doctrine for Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Threats. In R. Clarke (ed.), Terrorism Briefing for the New President, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 618, 160-167.

Krishnamurti, T.P., Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). The impact of over-the-counter availability of "Plan B" on teens' contraceptive decision makingSocial Science and Medicine, 67, 618-627.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007) Individual Differences in Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92, 938-956.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Communicating with the public: Before, during, and after emergencies. (in Chinese) China Emergency Management, 16-19.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Non-Persuasive Communication about Matters of Greatest Urgency: Climate ChangeEnvironmental Science & Technology, 41, 7204-7208.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). An early history of hindsight researchSocial Cognition, 25, 10-13.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful recordsJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19.

Florig, K., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individuals' decisions affecting radiation exposure after a nuclear explosion. Health Physics, 92, 475-483.

National Research Council. (2007). Risk comparisonsScientific Reviews of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget (pp.37-8). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Apt, J. & Fischhoff, B. (2006). Power and peopleElectricity Journal, 19(9), 17-25.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Brilliant, L., & Caruso, D. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks. Global Public Health 1(2), 178-193.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Communication: Getting straight talk right. Harvard Business Review, 8.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Modeling: Visualizing your vulnerabilities. Harvard Business Review, 8-11.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu exampleJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 33, 133-151.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Cognitive processes in stated preference methods. In K-G. Maler & J. Vincent (Eds.), Handbook of Environmental Economics (pp. 937-968). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision research strategiesHealth Psychology, 21(4), S1-S8.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, August 7). A hero in every aisle seatNew York Times. Retrieved from

Fischhoff, B. (2005). The psychological perception of risk. In D. Kamien (ed.), McGraw-Hill Handbook of Terrorism and Counter-terrorism (p. 463-492). New York: McGraw-Hill.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Thinking about the indeterminate. Review of R.A. Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, (New York: Oxford University Press). Issues in Science and Technology, 21(4), 82-84.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, October 2). We need the right words to weather the stormWashington Post. Retrieved from

Fischhoff, B. (2005), President's columns from the Society for Risk Analysis RISK Newsletter.

Parker, A. & Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 1-27.

Downs, J. S. Murray, P. J., Bruine de Bruin, W., White, J. P., Palmgren, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). An interactive video program to reduce adolescent females' STD risk: A randomized controlled trialSocial Science and Medicine, 59, 1561-1572.

Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). Setting Policies for Consumer Communications: A Behavioral Decision Research ApproachJournal of Public Policy and Marketing, 23, 14-27.

Gregory, R., Fischhoff, B., Butte, G., & Thorne, S. (2003). A multi-channel stakeholder consultation process for transmission deregulationEnergy Policy, 31, 1291-9.

Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R., Small, D., & Lerner, J. (2003). Evaluating the success of terror risk communications. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 1(4), 255-258.

Fischhoff, B., & Wesseley, S. (2003). Managing patients with inexplicable health problemsBritish Medical Journal, 326, 595-597.

Löfstedt, R., Fischhoff, B., & Fischhoff, I. (2002). Precautionary principles: General definitions and specific applications to genetically modified organisms (GMOs)Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21, 381-407.

Fischhoff, B. (2000). Scientific management of science? Policy Sciences, 33, 73-87.

Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C., Dawes, R.M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life eventsPublic Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189-205.

Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S.J., Sox, H.C., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000) Women's understanding of the mammography screening debateArchives of Internal Medicine, 160(10), 1434-40.

Fischhoff, B. (1999). What do patients want? Help in making effective choicesEffective Clinical Practice, 2, 198-200.

Fischhoff, B., Downs, J., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1998). Adolescent vulnerability: A framework for behavioral interventionsApplied and Preventive Psychology, 7, 77-94.

Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232-248.

Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of processRisk Analysis, 15, 137-145.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). Acceptable risk: A conceptual proposalRisk: Health, Safety & Environment, 1, 1-28.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) meanInternational Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Fischhoff, B. (1993). Transaction analysis: A framework and an application to insurance decisionsJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 53-69.

Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assaultAmerican Psychologist,47(4), 577-588.

Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M.J., & Furby, L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.) Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19-60). London, UK: Routledge

Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in thereAmerican Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847.

Fischhoff, B. (1990). Psychology and public policy: Tool or tool maker? American Psychologist, 45, 657-663.

Furby, L., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M. (1989). Judged effectiveness of common rape prevention and self-defense strategiesJournal of Interpersonal Violence, 4, 44-64

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Risk: A guide to controversyAppendix to National Research Council. Improving risk communications (pp. 211-319).Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1988). Measuring values: A conceptual framework for interpreting transactions with special reference to contingent valuation of visibilityJournal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 147-184

Fischhoff, B., MacGregor, D., & Blackshaw, L. (1987). Creating categories for databasesInternational Journal of Man-Machine Systems, 27, 33-63.

Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798

Fischhoff, B., Watson, S., & Hope, C. (1984). Defining riskPolicy Sciences, 17, 123-139.

Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823-843.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Acceptable risk: The case of nuclear powerJournal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2, 559-575.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Predicting framesJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory & Cognition, 9, 113-116.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1983). Psychological dimensions of climatic change. In R. S. Chen, E. Boulding and S. H. Schneider (Eds.), Social science research and climate change (pp. 183-203). Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.

Fischhoff, B. (1981). Hot air: The psychology of CO-induced climatic change. In J. Harvey (Ed.), Cognition, social behavior and the environment (pp. 163-184). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment. In R. A. Shweder and D. W. Fiske (Eds.), New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, (4) pp. 79-93. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S. & Combs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefitsPolicy Sciences, 9(2), 127-152.

Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprisesJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.

Fischhoff, B. (1977). Cost-benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenancePolicy Sciences, 8(2), 177-202.

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R. (1974). Failure has many fathers. Review of I. Janis, Victims of Groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes. Reprinted (1976) in Policy Sciences, 7(3), 388-393.

Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertaintyJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299.

Katie Slater, Administrative Assistant

Phone: (412) 268-8715, Email: