Baruch Fischhoff

Howard Heinz University Professor
Engineering and Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology

Bio

• Carnegie Mellon 1987-

Baruch Fischhoff, Ph.D., is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department Engineering and Public Policy and the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a BS in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an MA and PhD in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and of the National Academy of Medicine. He is past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis, and recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award. He was founding chair of the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee and chaired the National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security and co-chaired the National Research Council Committee on Future Research Goals and Directions for Foundational Science in Cybersecurity and three National Academy of Sciences Colloquia on “The Science of Science Communication.” He is a former member of the Eugene, Oregon Commission on the Rights of Women, Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board, where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), American Psychological Association (APA), the Association for Psychological Science, the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Society for Risk Analysis. He has received APA’s Award for Distinguished Service to Psychology, an honorary Doctorate of Humanities from Lund University, an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, and Carnegie Mellon's Ryan Award for Teaching, and the College of Engineering Outstanding Mentor Award. He has co-authored or edited, Acceptable Risk (1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (1993), Elicitation of Preferences (2000), Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach (2002), Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Science Foundations (2011), Risk: A Very Short Introduction (2011), Communicating Risks and Benefits: An Evidence-Based Guide (2011), Judgment and Decision Making (2011), Risk Analysis and Human Behavior (2011), The Science of Science Communication I (2013), II (2014), and III (2019), and Counting Civilian Casualties (2013).

Education

• Ph.D. (Psychology) 1975, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
• M.A. (Psychology) 1972, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
• B.Sc. (Mathematics, Psychology) 1967, Wayne State University

Lectures

Anastasi Lecture Series, Fordham University

Clarendon Lectures in Management, University of Oxford, April 18-20, 2023

Tribute to Baruch Fischhoff

Selected Publications

In Press

Dunning, R., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (in press). When do humans heed AI agents’ advice? When should they? Human Factors. https://doi.org/10.1177/00187208231190459

Kenny, R., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., Carley, K.M., & Canfield, C. (in press). Duped by bots: Why some are better than others at detecting fake social media. Human Factors. https://doi.org/10.1177/00187208211072642

2023

Rodriguez, V.L., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2023). Risk heatmaps as visual displays: Opening movie studios after the COVID-19 shutdown. Risk Analysis, 43, 1356-1359.  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/risa.14017

COVID Crisis Group. (2023). Lessons from the COVID War: An investigative report. New York: Public Affairs. One of 35 members. Philip Zelikow, lead author. https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/covid-crisis-group/lessons-from-the-covid-war/9781541703803/?lens=publicaffairs

Fischhoff, B., Cetron, M., & Jetelina, K. (2023). Do masks work? Randomized controlled trials are the worst way to answer the question. STAT. https://www.statnews.com/2023/05/02/do-masks-work-rcts-randomized-controlled-trials/

Haward, M.F., Lorenz, J.M., Janvier, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Antenatal consultation and deliberation: Adapting to patients’ preferences. Journal of Perinatology. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41372-023-01605-8

Morgan, K., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Mental models for scientists communicating with the public. Issues in Science and Technology 39(2), 58-61. https://issues.org/mental-models-scientists-risk-communication-morgan-fischhoff/

Woloshin, S., Yang, Y., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Communicating health information with visual displays: An illustrated design guide. Nature Medicine. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02328-1

2022

Drummond Otten, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2022). Calibration of scientific reasoning ability. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.2306

Grayek, E.N., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Krishnamurti, T. (2022).  The value of adherence information during clinical pharmaceutical trials. Clinical Trials, 19(3), 326-336. https://doi.org/10.1177/17407745221084127

Grayek, E., Yang, Y., Fischhoff, B., Schifferdecker, K.E., Woloshin, S., Kerlikowski, K., Miglioretti, D., & Tosteson, A. (2022). A procedure for eliciting women’s preferences for breast cancer screening frequency. Medical Decision Making, 42(6), 783-794. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X211073

Greenberg, M., & Lowrie, K. (2022). Baruch Fischhoff: Creating, testing, and communicating theories about risk perception, public preferences, and communication. Risk Analysis, 42, 1895-1899. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13996.

Woloshin, S., Dewitt, B., Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B. (2022).  Assessing how consumers interpret and act on results from at-home COVID-19 self-test kits: A randomized clinical trial. JAMA Internal Medicine, 182(3), 332-341. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2788656

2021

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2021).  Assessing broader impacts of funded research: The United States National Science Foundation vs. Rep. Lamar Smith.  Science and Public Policy. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scab082

Fischhoff, B. (2021).  The COVID communication breakdown. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-10-04/covid-communication-breakdown

Fischhoff, B.  (2021).  Making behavioral science integral to climate science and action.  Behavioural Public Policy, 5(4) 439-453. https://www.doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2020.38 

Fischhoff, B., Dewitt, B., Sahlin, N-E., & Davis, A.L. (2021). A secure procedure for early career scientists to report apparent misconduct. Life Sciences, Society and Policy.  doi: 10.1186/s40504-020-00110-6 [https://rdcu.be/cd838] 

Fischhoff, B., Gamble, V.N., & Shoch-Spana, M. (2021).  Understanding and communicating about COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, effectiveness, and equity.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. https://www.nap.edu/26154 

Garfin, D.R., Fischhoff, B., Holman, E.A., & Silver, R.C.  (2021).  Risk perceptions and health behaviors as COVID-19 in the United States: Results from a probability-based nationally representative sample.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 27, 584-598.  doi: 10.1037/xap0000374

Haward, M.F., Lorenz, J.M., Janvier, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2021). Bereaved parents’ insights for the antenatal consultation. American Journal of Perinatology. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-0041-1731651

Mohan, D., Chang, C.-C., Fischhoff, B., Rosengart, M.R., Angus, D.C., Yealy, D.M., & Barnato, A.E. (2021). Outcome of a digital behavioral intervention to improve trauma triage: analysis of Medicare claims. Journal of Surgical Research, 268, 532-539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2021.07.029 

2020

Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., & Fischhoff, B. (2020).  Decision making competence: More than intelligence?  Current Directions in Psychological Science, 29(2), 186-192. 

Fischhoff, B.  (2020).  Making decisions in a COVID-19 world.  JAMA, 323(22). doi:10.1001/jama.2020.10178

Fischhoff, B.  (2020).  The microbiomes of gut-level decisions.  CQ (Critical Quarterly), 62(1), 30--37. doi.org/10.1111/criq.12525

Fischhoff, B., & Broomell, S.B.  (2020).  Judgment and decision making.  Annual Review of Psychology, 71. 331-355. doi: 10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050747 http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/KXBRW9TWBZZ9X2TFHJJY/full/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050747

NASEM. (2020). Framework for equitable allocation of covid-19 vaccine. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press  https://www.nap.edu/25917 

NASEM. (2020).  Rapid expert consultation on the effectiveness of fabric masks for the COVID-19 pandemic (letter report).  R. Besser & B. Fischhoff, authors.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press.  https://www.nap.edu/25776 

Soares-Weiser, K., Lasserson, T., Jorgensen, K.J., Woloshin, S., Bero, L., Brown, B., & Fischhoff, B. (2020). Policy makers must act on incomplete evidence in responding to COVID-19 (Editorial).  Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (11), ED000149 https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.ED000149 

World Health Organization.  (2020).  The importance of testing messages.  Fiona Fleck interviews Baruch Fischhoff. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 98, 516-517.

2019

Arnold, J., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., ...., & Hanmer, J.Z. (2019). Comparing the predictive ability of a commercial artificial intelligence early warning system with physician judgment for clinical deterioration in hospitalized general internal medicine patients, a prospective observational study.  BMJ Open, 9, e032187. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-03218

Canfield, C., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L.  (2019).  Better beware: Comparing metacognition for phishing and legitimate emails. Metacognition and Learning, 14(3), 343-362.  doi:10.1007/s11409-019-09197-5

Dewitt, D., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., Broomell, S.B., Roberts, M., Hanmer, J. (2019).  Exclusion criteria as measurements I: Identifying invalid responses. Medical Decision Making, 39(6), 693-703. doi: 10.1177/0272989X19856617

Dewitt, D., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., Broomell, S.B., Roberts, M., Hanmer, J. (2019).  Exclusion criteria as measurements II: Effects on utility curves. Medical Decision Making, 39(6), 704-716. soe: 10.1177/0272989X19862542

Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., & Sahlin, N-E. (2019). “Moral machine” experiment is no basis for policy making (Correspondence). Nature, 567, 31.https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00766-x

Fischhoff, B., & Barnato, A.E.  (2019).  Value awareness: A goal for end-of-life decision making.  Medical Decision Making Policy and Practice. doi: 10.1177/2381468318817523

Fischhoff, B. (2019). Evaluating science communication. PNAS, 116(16), 7670-7675. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1805863115

Fischhoff, B. (2019).  Tough calls.  Scientific American, 321(3), 74-79.  https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-assessing-novel-risks-facts-are-not-enough

Kulkarni, S., Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Rosengart, M.R., Angus, D.C., Saul, M., Yealy, D.M., & Mohan, D.  (2019).  Defining the representativeness heuristic in trauma triage: a retrospective observational cohort study. PLOSOne 14(2): e0212201. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212201

Yang, Y., Wong-Parodi, G., & Fischhoff. (2019).  "How Stable Are Preferences among Emerging Electricity Generation Technologies."  Environmental Research Communications, 1(7). https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab2ec0

Yu, M., Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B.  (2019).  Implementing a new Common Rule requirement for informed consent: A randomized trial on adult asthma patients.  Medical Decision Making Policy and Practice. doi: 10.1177/2381468319839315

2018

Canfield, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2018). Setting priorities for behavioral interventions: An application to reducing phishing risks. Risk Analysis, 38(4),826-838. doi: 10.1111/risa.12917

Fischhoff, B., Wong-Parodi, G., Garfin, D., Holman, E.A., & Silver, R. (2018). Public understanding of Ebola risks: Mastering an unfamiliar threat. Risk Analysis, 38(1), 71-83. doi: 10.1111/risa.12794

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., Rosengart, M.R., Wallace, D.J., Yealy, D.M., Farris, C., Chang, C.-C.H., Kerti, S., & Barnato, A.E. (2018).  Serious video games may improve physicians’ heuristics in trauma triage.  PNAS, 115(37), 9204-9209. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805450115.

Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Weller, J. (2018). Robustness of decision-making competence:  Evidence from two measures and an 11-year longitudinal study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 380-391. doi: 10.1002/bdm.2059

2017

Atran, S., Axelrod, R., Davis, R., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Challenges in researching terrorism from the field. Science, 355(6323), 352-354. doi: 10.1126/science.aaj2037

Bruine de Bruin, A., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017).  Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists.  PNAS, 114(13), 3297-3304. doi/10.1073/pnas.1615461114

Canfield, C., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., Forget, A., Pearman, S., & Thomas, J.  (2017).  Replication: Challenges in using data logs to validate phishing detection ability metrics.  Symposium on Usable Privacy and Security (SOUPS) 2017. https://www.usenix.org/conference/soups2017/technical-sessions/presentation/canfield

Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Hanmer, J.  (2017). An approach to reconciling competing ethical principles in aggregating heterogeneous health preferences. Medical Decision Making, 37, 647-656. doi: 10.1177/0272989X17696999

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2017). Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. PNAS, 114, 9587-9592. doi:10.1073/pnas.1704882114

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Development and validation of the Scientific Reasoning Scale. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 30(1), 26-38. doi: 10.1002/bdm.1906

Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Breaking ground for psychological science: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration. American Psychologist, 72(2). 118-125. doi.org/10.1037/a0040438

Haward, M., Janvier, A., Lorenz, J.M., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Counseling parents at risk of delivery of an extremely premature infant: Differing strategies. American Journal of Bioethics – Empirical Methods,8(4), 243-252.   doi: 10.1080/23294515.2017.1394399

Klein, O., Hegarty, P., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Hindsight forty years on. Memory Studies, 10(3), 249-260.

Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., Sadovsky, Y., & Simhan, H. (2017). MyHealthyPregnancy: A feasibility pilot of a behavioral decision research-based tool for assessing and communicating pregnancy risk. JMIR mHealth uHealth, 5(4), e 42. doi:10.2196/mhealth.7036

Mohan, D., Farris, C., Fischhoff, B., Rosengart, M.R., et al.. (2017). Testing the efficacy of a video game vs. a traditional education program at improving physician decision making in trauma triage: a randomized controlled trial. BMJ, 359, j5416. doi: MJ2017;359:j5416 

2016

Canfield, C., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L.  (2016). Quantifying phishing susceptibility for detection and behavior decisions. Human Factors, 58(8), 1158-1172.  doi: 10.1177/0018720816665025

Wong-Parodi, G., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Schwartz, D., & Fischhoff, B.  (2016). Integrating social science in climate and energy solutions: A decision science approach.  Nature Climate Change, 6, 563-569.  doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2917

2015

Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Broomell, S.  (2015).  Environmental risk perception from visual cues: Caution and sensitivity in evaluating tornado risks.  Environmental Research Letters, 10, 124009. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124009

Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis.  Science, 350(6260), 527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6516.

Fischhoff, B. (2015).  Risk perception and communication.  In R. Detels, M. Gulliford, Karim, Q.A., & Tan, C.C. (eds.), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Sixth Edition (7.5).  Oxford: Oxford University Press.  doi: 10.1093/med/9780199661756.003.0138

Krishnamurti, T., Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., & Fischhoff, B.  (2015).  A randomized trial testing FDA "breakthrough" language.  JAMA Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.5355

Wong-Parodi, G., & Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The impacts of political cues and practical information on climate change decisions.  Environmental Research Letters, 10. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034004.

2014

Davis, A.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2014). Communicating uncertain experimental evidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40, 261-274.s

Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671.

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Farris, C., Switzer, G.E., et al. (2014). Validating a vignette-based instrument to study physician decision making in trauma triage. Medical Decision Making, 32, 242-252.

Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., & Strauss, B. (2014). A method to evaluate the usability of interactive climate change impact decision aids. Climatic Change, 126, 485-493. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1226-9

2013

Davis, A.L., Krishnamurti, T., Fischhoff, B., & Bruine de Bruin, W.  (2013).  Setting a standard for electricity pilot studies.  Energy Policy, 62, 401-409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.093

Fischhoff, B.  (2013). The sciences of science communication.  PNAS, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. doi/10.1073/pnas.1213273110

Halpern, B.S., Longo, C., McLeod, K.L., Cooke, R., Fischhoff, B., Samhouri, J.F., & Scarborough.  (2013).  Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current.  Marine Policy, 42(1), 68-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.01.019

Kadane, J.B., & Fischhoff, B.  (2013).  A cautionary note on global recalibration. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(1), 25-28.

Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B. (2013, May 22). Teenagers can handle Plan B. Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

Schwartz, D., Fischhoff, B., Krishnamurti, T., & Sowell, F.  (2013). The Hawthorne Effect and energy awareness.  PNAS, 110(38), 15242-15246. doi/10.1073/pnas.1301687110

2012

Farris, C. & Fischhoff, B. (2012). A decision science informed approach to sexual risk and non-consent.  Clinical and Translational Science, 5, 482-485.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012, Summer).  Communicating uncertainty: Fulfilling the duty to inform.  Issues in Science and Technology, 29, 63-70.

Fischhoff, B. (2012). Good decisions require good communication. Drug Safety, 35, 983-993.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012).  Robyn Mason Dawes (1936-2010).  American Psychologist, 67, 319-320.

Fischhoff, B., & Eggers, S. (2012). Questions of competence: The duty to inform and the limits to choice. In E. Shafir (ed.), The behavioral foundations of policy (pp. 217-230).  Princeton: Princeton University Press.

2011

Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else).  American Psychologist, 66, 520-531.

Fischhoff, B., Brewer, N., & Downs, J.S.  (eds.).  (2011). Communicating risks and benefits: An evidence-based user’s guide.  Washington, DC: Food and Drug Administration. 

Fischhoff, B., & Chauvin, C. (eds.).  (2011).  Intelligence analysis: Behavioral and social science foundations.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

Fischhoff, B., & Kadvany, J.  (2011).  Risk: A very short introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 

Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The emotions of the nuclear experts. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

National Research Council.  (2011). Intelligence analysis for tomorrow. Washington, DC: Author (Consensus Report).

Pidgeon, N., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks.   Nature Climate Change, 1(1), 35-41.

Silver, R.C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  What should we expect after the next attack?  American Psychologist, 66, 567-572.

2010

Fischhoff, B. (2010). Judgment and decision making. Wily Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science. New York: Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., Millstein, S.G, & Halpern-Felsher, B.L. (2010). Adolescents' perceived risk of dying. Journal of Adolescent Health, 46(3), 265-269.

Kaptan, G., & Fischhoff, B. (2010). Sticky decisions: Peanut butter in a time of Salmonella. Emerging Infectious Disease, 16, 900-904.

2009

Bruine de Bruin, W., Güvenç, Ü., Fischhoff, B., Armstrong, C.M., & Caruso, D. (2009). Communicating about xenotransplanation: Models and scenarios. Risk Analysis, 29(8), 1105-1115.

Fischhoff, B. (2009, 17 February). The nuclear energy industry's communication problem. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 

Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (2009). The science and practice of risk ranking. Horizons, 10(3), 40-47.

2008

Casman, E. & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Risk communication planning for the aftermath of a plague bioattack. Risk Analysis, 28(5), 1327-42.

Downs, J. S., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Parents' vaccination comprehension and decisions. Vaccine, 26, 1595-1607.

Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28, 12-28.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Sageman, M. (2008) Mutually Assured Support: A Security Doctrine for Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Threats. In R. Clarke (ed.), Terrorism Briefing for the New President, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 618, 160-167.

Krishnamurti, T.P., Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). The impact of over-the-counter availability of "Plan B" on teens' contraceptive decision making. Social Science and Medicine, 67, 618-627.

2007

Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007) Individual Differences in Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92, 938-956.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Communicating with the public: Before, during, and after emergencies. (in Chinese) China Emergency Management, 16-19.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Non-Persuasive Communication about Matters of Greatest Urgency: Climate Change. Environmental Science & Technology, 41, 7204-7208.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). An early history of hindsight research. Social Cognition, 25, 10-13.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19.

Florig, K., & Fischhoff, B.  (2007).  Individuals’ decisions affecting radiation exposure after a nuclear event. Health Physics, 92, 475-483. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.HP.0000255660.33000.a6

National Research Council. (2007). Risk comparisons. Scientific Reviews of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget (pp.37-8). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff. B. (2007).  Maximizers vs. satisficers: Decision-making styles, competence and outcomes.  Judgment and Decision Making, 2(6), 342-350. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1930297500000486

2006

Apt, J. & Fischhoff, B. (2006). Power and people. Electricity Journal, 19(9), 17-25.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Brilliant, L., & Caruso, D. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks. Global Public Health 1(2), 178-193.

Fischhoff, B.  (2006, May). Communication: Getting straight talk right.  Harvard Business Review, 8. https://hbr.org/2006/05/preparing-for-a-pandemic#post6

Fischhoff, B.  (2006, May).  Modeling: Visualizing your vulnerabilities.  Harvard Business Review, 8-11.  https://hbr.org/2006/05/preparing-for-a-pandemic#post7

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 33, 133-151.

2005

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Cognitive processes in stated preference methods. In K-G. Maler & J. Vincent (Eds.), Handbook of Environmental Economics (pp. 937-968). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision research strategies. Health Psychology, 21(4), S1-S8.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, August 7). A hero in every aisle seat. New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Thinking about the indeterminate. Review of R.A. Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, (New York: Oxford University Press). Issues in Science and Technology, 21(4), 82-84.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, October 2). We need the right words to weather the storm. Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/

Fischhoff, B. (2005), President's columns from the Society for Risk Analysis RISK Newsletter.

Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R.M., Lerner, J.S., & Small, D.A.  (2005). Evolving judgments of terror risks: Foresight, hindsight, and emotion.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 11, 124-139.  https://doi.org/10.1037/1076-898X.11.2.124

Parker, A. & Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 1-27.

2004

Downs, J. S. Murray, P. J., Bruine de Bruin, W., White, J. P., Palmgren, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). An interactive video program to reduce adolescent females' STD risk: A randomized controlled trial.  Social Science and Medicine, 59, 1561-1572.

Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). Setting Policies for Consumer Communications: A Behavioral Decision Research Approach. Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 23, 14-27.

2003

Gregory, R., Fischhoff, B., Butte, G., & Thorne, S. (2003). A multi-channel stakeholder consultation process for transmission deregulation. Energy Policy, 31, 1291-9.

Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R., Small, D., & Lerner, J. (2003). Evaluating the success of terror risk communications. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 1(4), 255-258.

Fischhoff, B., & Wesseley, S. (2003). Managing patients with inexplicable health problems. British Medical Journal, 326, 595-597.

2002

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischbeck, P.S., Stiber, N.A., & Fischhoff, B.  (2002).  What number is “fifty-fifty”? Distributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilities.  Risk Analysis, 22, 725-735. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00063

Löfstedt, R., Fischhoff, B., & Fischhoff, I. (2002). Precautionary principles: General definitions and specific applications to genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21, 381-407.

2001

Florig, H.K., Morgan, M.G., Morgan, K.M., Jenni, K.E., Fischhoff, B., Fischbeck, P.S., & DeKay, M.  (2001).  A deliberative method for ranking risks (1): Overview and test bed development.  Risk Analysis, 21, 913-922. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.215161

Morgan, K.M., DeKay, M.L., Fischbeck, P.S., Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., & Florig, H.K.  (2001).  A deliberative method for ranking risks (2): Evaluation of validity and agreement among risk managers.  Risk Analysis, 21, 923-938. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.215162

Riley, D.M., Fischhoff, B., Small, M., & Fischbeck, P.  (2001). Evaluating the effectiveness of risk-reduction strategies for consumer chemical products.  Risk Analysis, 21, 357-369. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.212117

2000

Fischhoff, B. (2000). Scientific management of science? Policy Sciences, 33, 73-87.

Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C., Dawes, R.M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189-205.

Long, J., & Fischhoff, B. (2000).  Setting risk priorities: A formal model.  Risk Analysis, 20, 339-351. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.203033

Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S.J., Sox, H.C., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000) Women's understanding of the mammography screening debate. Archives of Internal Medicine, 160(10), 1434-40.

1999

Fischhoff, B. (1999). What do patients want? Help in making effective choices. Effective Clinical Practice, 2, 198-200.

Fischhoff, B.  (1999).  Why (cancer) risk communication can be hard.  Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, 25, 7-13. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.jncimonographs.a024213

Fischhoff, B., Welch, N., & Frederick, S.  (1999).  Construal processes in preference elicitation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 139-164. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007823326511

1998

Fischhoff, B., Downs, J., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1998). Adolescent vulnerability: A framework for behavioral interventions. Applied and Preventive Psychology, 7, 77-94.

Frederick, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1998). Scope insensitivity in elicited values.  Risk Decision and Policy, 3, 109-124.

1996

Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232-248.

1995

Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of process. Risk Analysis, 15, 137-145.

1994

Bostrom, A., Atman, C.J., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G.  (1994).  Evaluating risk communications:  Completing and correcting mental models of hazardous processes. Part 2.  Risk Analysis, 14, 789-798. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00290.x 

Bostrom, A., Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B. & Read, D.  (1994).  What do people know about global climate change?  Part 1.  Mental models.  Risk Analysis, 14, 959-970. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00065.x

Fischhoff, B. (1994). Acceptable risk: A conceptual proposal. Risk: Health, Safety & Environment, 1, 1-28.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Read, D., Bostrom, A., Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., & Smuts, T.  (1994).  What do people know about global climate change?  Part 2.  Survey studies of educated laypeople.  Risk Analysis, 14, 971-982. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00066.x

1993

Fischhoff, B. (1993). Transaction analysis: A framework and an application to insurance decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 53-69.

Maharik, M., & Fischhoff, B.  (1993).  Public views of using nuclear energy sources in space missions.  Space Policy, 9, 99-108. https://doi.org/10.1016/0265-9646(93)90023-3

Quadrel, M.J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W.  (1993).  Adolescent (in)vulnerability.  American Psychologist, 48, 102-116.  https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.48.2.102

1992

Bostrom, A., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (1992).  Characterizing mental models of hazardous processes: A methodology and an application to radon.  Journal of Social Issues, 48(4), 85-100.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-4560.1992.tb01946.x

Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault. American Psychologist,47(4), 577-588.

1991

Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M.J., & Furby, L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.) Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19-60). London, UK: Routledge

Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in there? American Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847.

1990

Fischhoff, B. (1990). Psychology and public policy: Tool or tool maker? American Psychologist, 45, 657-663.

Roth, E., Morgan, G., Fischhoff, B., Lave, L., & Bostrom, A. (1990).  What do we know about making risk comparisons?  Risk Analysis, 10, 375-387. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb00520.x

1989

Furby, L., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M. (1989). Judged effectiveness of common rape prevention and self-defense strategies. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 4, 44-64

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Risk: A guide to controversy. Appendix to National Research Council. Improving risk communications (pp. 211-319).Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

1988

Blackshaw, L., & Fischhoff, B.  (1988).  Decision making in online search.  Journal of American Society for Information Sciences, 39, 369-389. https://www.learntechlib.org/p/140533/

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1988). Measuring values: A conceptual framework for interpreting transactions with special reference to contingent valuation of visibility. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 147-184

Furby, L., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Gregory, R.  (1988).  Public perceptions of electric power transmission lines.  Journal of Environmental Psychology, 8(1), 19-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0272-4944(88)80021-5

1987

Fischhoff, B., MacGregor, D., & Blackshaw, L. (1987). Creating categories for databases. International Journal of Man-Machine Systems, 27, 33-63.

1986

Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798

1985

Svenson, O., & Fischhoff, B.   (1985).  Levels of environmental decisions.  Journal of Environmental Psychology, 5, 55-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0272-4944(85)80038-4

1984

Fischhoff, B., Watson, S., & Hope, C. (1984). Defining risk. Policy Sciences, 17, 123-139.

Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823-843.

Fischhoff, B. & Bar-Hillel, M.  (1984).  Diagnosticity and the base-rate effect.  Memory and Cognition, 12, 402-410. https://doi.org/10.3758/bf03198301

 Fischhoff, B. & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984).  Focusing techniques:  A shortcut to improving probability judgments?  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 34(2), 175-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(84)90002-3

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Page, R.T., & MacLean, D. (1984).  Editorial.  Nuclear power:  Time for detente. Risk Analysis, 4, 153. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00133.x

Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B.  (1984).  Modeling the societal impact of fatal accidents.  Management Science, 30, 464-474. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.30.4.464

1983

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Acceptable risk: The case of nuclear power. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2, 559-575.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Predicting frames. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory & Cognition, 9, 113-116.

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R.  (1983).  Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.  Psychological Review, 90, 239-260. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.90.3.239

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1983). Psychological dimensions of climatic change. In R. S. Chen, E. Boulding and S. H. Schneider (Eds.), Social science research and climate change (pp. 183-203). Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.

Fischhoff, B. & MacGregor, D.  (1983).  Judged lethality:  How much people seem to know depends upon how they are asked.  Risk Analysis, 3, 229-236. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb01391.x

1982

Fischhoff, B.  (1982).  Debiasing.  In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422-444).  New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1982).   Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about risk.  American Statistician, 1982, 36, 240-255; https://doi.org/10.2307/2683835

Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L.D.  (1982). Calibration of probabilities: State of the art to 1980.  In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under uncertainty:  Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334).  New York: Cambridge University Press

Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B.  (1982).  Targeting risks: Comments on Wilde's "Theory of Risk Homeostasis."  Risk Analysis, 2, 227-234. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01385.x

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1982).  Why study risk perceptions? Risk Analysis, 2, 83-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01369.x

1981

Bar-Hillel, M & Fischhoff, B.  (1981).  When do base rates affect predictions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41, 671-680.  https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.41.4.671

Fischhoff, B. (1981). Hot air: The psychology of CO₂-induced climatic change. In J. Harvey (Ed.), Cognition, social behavior and the environment (pp. 163-184). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

1980

Fischhoff, B.  (1980).  Clinical decision analysis.  Operations Research, 28, 28-43. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.1.28 

Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment. In R. A. Shweder and D. W. Fiske (Eds.), New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, (4) pp. 79-93. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1980).  Reasons for confidence.  Journal of Experimental Psychology:  Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.6.2.107

Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1980).   Training for calibration.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5

Murphy, A.H., Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Winkler, R.L.  (1980).  Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 61, 695-701. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26221118

1979

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1979).  Subjective sensitivity analysis.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 23, 339-359. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(79)90002-3

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1979).  Weighing the risks. Environment, 21(5), 17-20, 32-38. https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.1979.9929722 

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1979). Rating the risks.  Environment, 21(4), 14-20, 36-39. https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.1979.9933091

1978

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1978).  Fault trees: Sensitivity of assessed failure probabilities to problem representation.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330-344. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.4.2.330

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S. & Combs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy Sciences, 9(2), 127-152.

Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B, Layman, M. & Combs, B.  (1978).  Judged frequency of lethal events.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551-578.  . https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.4.6.551

1977

Beyth-Marom, R. & Fischhoff, B.  (1977).  Direct measures of availability and judgments of category frequency.  Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 9, 236-238. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03336986

Fischhoff, B. (1977). Cost-benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenance. Policy Sciences, 8(2), 177-202.

Fischhoff, B.  (1977).  Perceived informativeness of facts.  Journal of Experimental Psychology:  Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349-358. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.3.2.349

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1977).  Knowing with certainty:  The appropriateness of extreme confidence.  Journal of Experimental Psychology:  Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552-564. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.3.4.552

Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B.  (1977).  Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?  The calibration of probability judgments.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0

Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., Corrigan, B. & Combs, B.  (1977).  Preference for insuring against probable small losses: Implications for the theory and practice of insurance.  Journal of Risk and Insurance, 44, 237-258. https://doi.org/10.2307/252136  

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S.  (1977).  Behavioral decision theory.  Annual Review of Psychology, 28, 1-39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ps.28.020177.000245

1976

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R. (1974). Failure has many fathers. Review of I. Janis, Victims of Groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes. Reprinted (1976) in Policy Sciences, 7(3), 388-393.

1975

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R.  (1975).  "I knew it would happen"--Remembered probabilities of once-future things.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(75)90002-1

Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299.

1974

Koriat, A. & Fischhoff, B.  (1974).  What day is today?  An inquiry into the process of time orientation.  Memory and Cognition, 2, 201-205. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03208982