Baruch Fischhoff

Howard Heinz University Professor
Institute for Politics and Strategy, and Engineering & Public Policy

Bio

• Carnegie Mellon 1987-

BARUCH FISCHHOFF, Ph.D., is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department Engineering and Public Policy and Institute for Politics and Strategy at Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a BS in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an MA and PhD in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and of the National Academy of Medicine. He is past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis, and recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award. He was founding chair of the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee and recently chaired the National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security and co-chaired the National Research Council Committee on Future Research Goals and Directions for Foundational Science in Cybersecurity and the National Academy of Sciences Sackler Colloquium on “The Science of Science Communication.” He is a former member of the Eugene, Oregon Commission on the Rights of Women, Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board, where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of the American Psychological Association (APA), the Association for Psychological Science, the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Society for Risk Analysis. He has received APA’s Award for Distinguished Service to Psychology, and an honorary Doctorate of Humanities from Lund University, an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship[bf1] , and Carnegie Mellon’s Ryan Award for Meritorious Teaching[bf2] . He has co-authored or edited, Acceptable Risk (1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (1993), Elicitation of Preferences (2000), Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach (2002), Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Science Foundations (2011), Risk: A Very Short Introduction (2011), Communicating Risks and Benefits: An Evidence-Based Guide (2011), Judgment and Decision Making (2011), Risk Analysis and Human Behavior (2011), The Science of Science Communication I (2013) and II (2014), and Counting Civilian Casualties (2013).

Education

• Ph.D. (Psychology) 1975, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
• M.A. (Psychology) 1972, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
• B.Sc. (Mathematics, Psychology) 1967, Wayne State University

Selected Publications

[For publications that are not available here, please contact Edith Yetts]

In Press

Dewitt, B., Feeny, D., Fischhoff, B., et al.  (in press).  Estimation of a preference-based summary score for the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System: The PROMIS^®-Preference (PROPr) Scoring System. Medical Decision Making. doi: 10.1177/0272989X18776637

Fischhoff, B.  (in press). Evaluating science communications. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1805863115

Fischhoff, B.  (in press).  Risk-based thinking.  In H. Kunreuther, R.J. Meyer, & E.O. Michel-Kerjan (eds.), The Future of Risk Management (pp. 48-65).  Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

Fischhoff, B., & Barnato, A.E.  (in press).  Value Awareness: A Goal for End-of-Life Decision Making.  Medical Decision Making Policy and Practice. 

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., et al.  (in press).  Serious video games may improve physicians’ heuristics in trauma triage.  PNAS. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805450115

Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, & Strauss, B.  (in press).  Effect of risk and protective decision aids on flood preparation in vulnerable communities. Weather, Climate and Society. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0069.1

2018

Canfield, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (in press). Setting priorities for behavioral interventions: An application to reducing phishing risks. Risk Analysis. doi: 10.1111/risa.12917

Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Weller, J. (in press). Robustness of decision-making competence:  Evidence from two measures and an 11-year longitudinal study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. doi: 10.1002/bdm.2059

Fischhoff, B., Wong-Parodi, G., Garfin, D., Holman, E.A., & Silver, R. (2018). Public understanding of Ebola risks: Mastering an unfamiliar threat. Risk Analysis, 38(1), 71-83. doi: 10.1111/risa.12794

2017

Atran, S., Axelrod, R., Davis, R., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Challenges in researching terrorism from the field. Science, 355(6323), 352-354. doi: 10.1126/science.aaj2037

Bruine de Bruin, A., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017).  Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists.  PNAS, 114(13), 3297-3304. doi/10.1073/pnas.1615461114

Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Hanmer, J.  (2017). An approach to reconciling competing ethical principles in aggregating heterogeneous health preferences. Medical Decision Making, 37, 647-656. doi: 10.1177/0272989X17696999

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2017). Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. PNAS, 114, 9587-9592. doi:10.1073/pnas.1704882114

Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Development and validation of the Scientific Reasoning Scale. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 30(1), 26-38. doi: 10.1002/bdm.1906

Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Breaking ground for psychological science: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration. American Psychologist, 72(2). 118-125. doi.org/10.1037/a0040438

Haward, M., Janvier, A., Lorenz, J.M., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Counseling parents at risk of delivery of an extremely premature infant: Differing strategies. American Journal of Bioethics – Empirical Methods,8(4), 243-252.   doi: 10.1080/23294515.2017.1394399

Klein, O., Hegarty, P., & Fischhoff, B.  (2017). Hindsight forty years on. Memory Studies, 10(3), 249-260.

Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., Sadovsky, Y., & Simhan, H. (2017). MyHealthyPregnancy: A feasibility pilot of a behavioral decision research-based tool for assessing and communicating pregnancy risk. JMIR mHealth uHealth, 5(4), e 42. doi:10.2196/mhealth.7036

Mohan, D., Farris, C., Fischhoff, B., Rosengart, M.R., et al.. (2017). Testing the efficacy of a video game vs. a traditional education program at improving physician decision making in trauma triage: a randomized controlled trial. BMJ, 359, j5416. doi: MJ2017;359:j5416 

2016

Canfield, C., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L.  (2016). Quantifying phishing susceptibility for detection and behavior decisions. Human Factors, 58(8), 1158-1172.  doi: 10.1177/0018720816665025

Wong-Parodi, G., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Schwartz, D., & Fischhoff, B.  (2016). Integrating social science in climate and energy solutions: A decision science approach.  Nature Climate Change, 6, 563-569.  doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2917

2015
Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis.  Science, 350(6260), 527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6516.

Dewitt, B., Fischhoff, B., Davis, A.L., & Broomell, S.  (2015).  Environmental risk perception from visual cues: Caution and sensitivity in evaluating tornado risks.  Environmental Research Letters, 10, 124009. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124009

Wong-Parodi, G., & Fischhoff, B.  (2015). The impacts of political cues and practical information on climate change decisions.  Environmental Research Letters, 10. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034004.

2014
Davis, A.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2014). Communicating uncertain experimental evidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40, 261-274.s

Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671.

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Farris, C., Switzer, G.E., et al. (2014). Validating a vignette-based instrument to study physician decision making in trauma triage. Medical Decision Making, 32, 242-252.

Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., & Strauss, B. (2014). A method to evaluate the usability of interactive climate change impact decision aids. Climate Change, 126, 485-493. doi:10.1007/2s10584-014-1226-9

2013
Fischhoff, B.  (2013). The sciences of science communication.  PNAS, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. doi/10.1073/pnas.1213273110

Halpern, B.S., Longo, C., McLeod, K.L., Cooke, R., Fischhoff, B., Samhouri, J.F., & Scarborough.  (2013). Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current.  Marine Policy, 42, 68-73.

Kadane, J.B., & Fischhoff, B.  (2013).  A cautionary note on global recalibration. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(1), 25-28.

Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B. (2013, May 22). Teenagers can handle Plan B. Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

Schwartz, D., Fischhoff, B., Krishnamurti, T., & Sowell, F.  (2013). The Hawthorne Effect and energy awareness.  PNAS, 110(38), 15242-15246. doi/10.1073/pnas.1301687110

2012
Farris, C. & Fischhoff, B. (2012). A decision science informed approach to sexual risk and non-consent.  Clinical and Translational Science, 5, 482-485.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012, Summer).  Communicating uncertainty: Fulfilling the duty to inform.  Issues in Science and Technology, 29, 63-70.

Fischhoff, B. (2012). Good decisions require good communication. Drug Safety, 35, 983-993.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012).  Robyn Mason Dawes (1936-2010).  American Psychologist, 67, 319-320.

Fischhoff, B., & Eggers, S. (2012). Questions of competence: The duty to inform and the limits to choice. In E. Shafir (ed.), The behavioral foundations of policy (pp. 217-230).  Princeton: Princeton University Press.

2011
Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else).  American Psychologist, 66, 520-531.

Fischhoff, B., Brewer, N., & Downs, J.S.  (eds.).  (2011). Communicating risks and benefits: An evidence-based user’s guide.  Washington, DC: Food and Drug Administration. 

Fischhoff, B., & Chauvin, C. (eds.).  (2011).  Intelligence analysis: Behavioral and social science foundations.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

Fischhoff, B., & Kadvany, J.  (2011).  Risk: A very short introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 

Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The emotions of the nuclear experts. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

National Research Council.  (2011). Intelligence analysis for tomorrow. Washington, DC: Author (Consensus Report).

Pidgeon, N., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks.   Nature Climate Change, 1(1), 35-41.

Silver, R.C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  What should we expect after the next attack?  American Psychologist, 66, 567-572.

2010
Fischhoff, B. (2010). Judgment and decision making. Wily Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science. New York: Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., Millstein, S.G, & Halpern-Felsher, B.L. (2010). Adolescents' perceived risk of dying. Journal of Adolescent Health, 46(3), 265-269.

Kaptan, G., & Fischhoff, B. (2010). Sticky decisions: Peanut butter in a time of Salmonella. Emerging Infectious Disease, 16, 900-904.

2009
Bruine de Bruin, W., Güvenç, Ü., Fischhoff, B., Armstrong, C.M., & Caruso, D. (2009). Communicating about xenotransplanation: Models and scenarios. Risk Analysis, 29(8), 1105-1115.

Fischhoff, B. (2009, 17 February). The nuclear energy industry's communication problem. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 

Fischhoff, B. (2009). Risk Perception and Communication. In R. Detels, R. Beaglehole, M.A. Lansang, and M. Gulliford (Eds), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Fifth Edition (pp. 940-952). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Reprinted in N.K. Chater (Ed.), Judgement and Decision Making. London: Sage.

Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (2009). The science and practice of risk ranking. Horizons, 10(3), 40-47.

2008
Casman, E. & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Risk communication planning for the aftermath of a plague bioattack. Risk Analysis, 28(5), 1327-42.

Downs, J. S., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Parents' vaccination comprehension and decisions. Vaccine, 26, 1595-1607.

Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28, 12-28.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Sageman, M. (2008) Mutually Assured Support: A Security Doctrine for Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Threats. In R. Clarke (ed.), Terrorism Briefing for the New President, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 618, 160-167.

Krishnamurti, T.P., Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). The impact of over-the-counter availability of "Plan B" on teens' contraceptive decision making. Social Science and Medicine, 67, 618-627.

2007
Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007) Individual Differences in Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92, 938-956.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Communicating with the public: Before, during, and after emergencies. (in Chinese) China Emergency Management, 16-19.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Non-Persuasive Communication about Matters of Greatest Urgency: Climate Change. Environmental Science & Technology, 41, 7204-7208.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). An early history of hindsight research. Social Cognition, 25, 10-13.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19.

Florig, K., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individuals' decisions affecting radiation exposure after a nuclear explosion. Health Physics, 92, 475-483.

National Research Council. (2007). Risk comparisons. Scientific Reviews of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget (pp.37-8). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

2006
Apt, J. & Fischhoff, B. (2006). Power and people. Electricity Journal, 19(9), 17-25.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Brilliant, L., & Caruso, D. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks. Global Public Health 1(2), 178-193.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Communication: Getting straight talk right. Harvard Business Review, 8.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Modeling: Visualizing your vulnerabilities. Harvard Business Review, 8-11.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 33, 133-151.

2005
Fischhoff, B. (2005). Cognitive processes in stated preference methods. In K-G. Maler & J. Vincent (Eds.), Handbook of Environmental Economics (pp. 937-968). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision research strategies. Health Psychology, 21(4), S1-S8.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, August 7). A hero in every aisle seat. New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Thinking about the indeterminate. Review of R.A. Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, (New York: Oxford University Press). Issues in Science and Technology, 21(4), 82-84.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, October 2). We need the right words to weather the storm. Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/

Fischhoff, B. (2005), President's columns from the Society for Risk Analysis RISK Newsletter.

Parker, A. & Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 1-27.

2004
Downs, J. S. Murray, P. J., Bruine de Bruin, W., White, J. P., Palmgren, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). An interactive video program to reduce adolescent females' STD risk: A randomized controlled trial.  Social Science and Medicine, 59, 1561-1572.

Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). Setting Policies for Consumer Communications: A Behavioral Decision Research Approach. Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 23, 14-27.

2003
Gregory, R., Fischhoff, B., Butte, G., & Thorne, S. (2003). A multi-channel stakeholder consultation process for transmission deregulation. Energy Policy, 31, 1291-9.

Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R., Small, D., & Lerner, J. (2003). Evaluating the success of terror risk communications. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 1(4), 255-258.

Fischhoff, B., & Wesseley, S. (2003). Managing patients with inexplicable health problems. British Medical Journal, 326, 595-597.

2002
Löfstedt, R., Fischhoff, B., & Fischhoff, I. (2002). Precautionary principles: General definitions and specific applications to genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21, 381-407.

2000
Fischhoff, B. (2000). Scientific management of science? Policy Sciences, 33, 73-87.

Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C., Dawes, R.M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189-205.

Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S.J., Sox, H.C., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000) Women's understanding of the mammography screening debate. Archives of Internal Medicine, 160(10), 1434-40.

1999
Fischhoff, B. (1999). What do patients want? Help in making effective choices. Effective Clinical Practice, 2, 198-200.

1998
Fischhoff, B., Downs, J., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1998). Adolescent vulnerability: A framework for behavioral interventions. Applied and Preventive Psychology, 7, 77-94.

1996
Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232-248.

1995
Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of process. Risk Analysis, 15, 137-145.

1994
Fischhoff, B. (1994). Acceptable risk: A conceptual proposal. Risk: Health, Safety & Environment, 1, 1-28.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

1993
Fischhoff, B. (1993). Transaction analysis: A framework and an application to insurance decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 53-69.

1992
Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault. American Psychologist,47(4), 577-588.

1991
Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M.J., & Furby, L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.) Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19-60). London, UK: Routledge

Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in there? American Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847.

1990
Fischhoff, B. (1990). Psychology and public policy: Tool or tool maker? American Psychologist, 45, 657-663.

1989
Furby, L., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M. (1989). Judged effectiveness of common rape prevention and self-defense strategies. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 4, 44-64

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Risk: A guide to controversy. Appendix to National Research Council. Improving risk communications (pp. 211-319).Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

1988
Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1988). Measuring values: A conceptual framework for interpreting transactions with special reference to contingent valuation of visibility. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 147-184

1987
Fischhoff, B., MacGregor, D., & Blackshaw, L. (1987). Creating categories for databases. International Journal of Man-Machine Systems, 27, 33-63.

1986
Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798

1984
Fischhoff, B., Watson, S., & Hope, C. (1984). Defining risk. Policy Sciences, 17, 123-139.

Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823-843.

1983
Fischhoff, B. (1983). Acceptable risk: The case of nuclear power. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2, 559-575.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Predicting frames. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory & Cognition, 9, 113-116.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1983). Psychological dimensions of climatic change. In R. S. Chen, E. Boulding and S. H. Schneider (Eds.), Social science research and climate change (pp. 183-203). Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.

1981
Fischhoff, B. (1981). Hot air: The psychology of CO₂-induced climatic change. In J. Harvey (Ed.), Cognition, social behavior and the environment (pp. 163-184). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

1980
Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment. In R. A. Shweder and D. W. Fiske (Eds.), New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, (4) pp. 79-93. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

1978
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S. & Combs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy Sciences, 9(2), 127-152.

1977
Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.

Fischhoff, B. (1977). Cost-benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenance. Policy Sciences, 8(2), 177-202.

1976
Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R. (1974). Failure has many fathers. Review of I. Janis, Victims of Groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes. Reprinted (1976) in Policy Sciences, 7(3), 388-393.

1975
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299.

Katie Slater, Administrative Assistant