Samaras featured in The New York Times
Research from Engineering and Public Policy Courtesy Professor Costa Samaras was recently featured in an opinion piece published by The New York Times. The article discusses whether the widespread use of electric vehicles (EVs) will be enough to help solve the problem of climate change. A set of tweets by Samaras help to explain that programs such as gas vehicle buy-backs are essential if we want to reach 100% EV usage by 2050, the year that the Biden administration hopes the country will reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Gas-powered vehicles are currently the biggest single source of greenhouse gases in the United States, accounting for more than a quarter of the country’s total emissions. In line with the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, President Biden has promised to put the country on a path to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. But, because vehicles stay on the road for many years, it’s estimated that all new cars would have to be electric by 2035 to reach that goal.
Samaras notes that, “getting a lot of EVs on the road takes time. The average age of cars on the road is ~12 years, but the distribution has a long tail-- some cars that stay on the road 15, 20, even 30 years.” According to Samaras, “without policy to buy back gas vehicles, the year that we have to start selling only EVs to have a 100% electric fleet by 2050 is...2020. Now maybe we don't need 100% EVs, and we could wait until the late 2030s to start selling only EVs and we could get 65-80% EVs by 2050.”
**Without policy** to buy back gas vehicles, the year that we have to start selling only EVs to have a 100% electric fleet by 2050 is...2020. Now maybe we don't need 100% EVs, and we could wait until the late 2030s to start selling only EVs and we could get 65-80% EVs by 2050. pic.twitter.com/o8vFnGlNAK
— Costa Samaras (@CostaSamaras) September 16, 2020
For that reason, some analysts, including Samaras, argue that America’s car fleet will have to shrink as it electrifies. “If electric vehicles are to play a major role in solving the climate crisis — which they must — they have to be paired with dramatic land use reform that shortens or eliminates a substantial portion of all vehicle trips, and replaces them with transit, walking, biking, shared vehicles, and other forms of mobility,” writes Matthew Lewis, the director of communications at California YIMBY.
But we often don't think about total travel in decarbonization- if total travel goes up (due to sprawl/automation/uber/etc) it makes decarbonization harder. If we reduce total travel through urban design, incentives, transit, & shared mobility, it makes decarbonization easier.
— Costa Samaras (@CostaSamaras) September 16, 2020
About two-thirds of VMT are in "urban areas". About 1/3 of all VMT (~1 trillion VMT) is from the states with the 10 most populous cities. These regions could make a big impact on decarbonization by reducing VMT. Eliminate VMT from those states gets us to the dashed line. pic.twitter.com/ZhfKfXE1rY
— Costa Samaras (@CostaSamaras) September 16, 2020
To learn more about how electric vehicles play a part in the path to net-zero emissions, read the full New York Times article.
