Carnegie Mellon University
Counting Civilian Casualties

Civilian CasualtiesCounting Civilian Casualties

An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict

Edited by Taylor B. Seybolt, Jay D. Aronson, and Baruch Fischhoff

A popular myth emerged in the late 1990s: in 1900, wars killed one civilian for every eight soldiers, while contemporary wars were killing eight civilians for every one soldier. The neat reversal of numbers was memorable, and academic publications and UN documents regularly cited it. The more it was cited, the more trusted it became. In fact, however, subsequent research found no empirical evidence for the idea that the ratio of civilians to soldiers killed in war has changed dramatically. But while the ratios may not have changed, the political significance of civilian casualties has risen tremendously.

Over the past century, civilians in war have gone from having no particular rights to having legal protections and rights that begin to rival thoseaccorded to states. The concern for civilians in conflict has become so strong that governments occasionally undertake humanitarian interventions, at great risk and substantial cost, to protect strangers in distant lands. In the early 1990s, the UN Security Council authorized military interventions to help feed and protect civilians in the Kurdish area of Iraq, Somalia, and Bosnia. And in May 2011 , Barack Obama's National Security Advisor explained the United States' decision to support NATO's military intervention in these terms "When the president made this decision, there was an immediate threat to 700,000 Libyan civilians in the town of Benghazi. We've had a success here in terms of being able to protect those civilians."

Counting Civilian Casualties aims to promote open scientific dialogue by high lighting the strengths and weaknesses of the most commonly used casualty recording and estimation techniques in an understandable format. Its thirteen chapters, each authoritative but accessible to nonspecialists, explore a variety of approaches, from direct recording to statistical estimation and sampling, to collecting data on civilian deaths caused by conflict. The contributors also discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages, and analyze how figures are used (and misused) by governments, rebels, human rights advocates, war crimes tribunals, and others. In addition to providing analysts with a broad range of tools to produce accurate data, this will be an in valuable resource for policymakers, military officials, jou rnalists, human rights activists, courts, and ordinary people who want to be more informed--and skeptical--consumers of casualty counts.

Table of Contents

Preface and Acknowledgments
Part I Who Counts?
1 Introduction, Taylor B. Seybolt, Jay D. Aronson, and Baruch Fischhoff
2 Significant Numbers: Civilian Casualties and Strategic Peacebuilding
Taylor B. Seybolt
3 The Politics of Civilian Casualty Counts
Jay D. Aronson
Part II Recording Violence: Incident-Based Data
4 Iraq Body Count: A Case Study in the Uses of Incident-based Conflict Casualty Data Aggregate Conflict Casualty Data
John Sloboda, Hamit Dardagan, Michael Spagat, and Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks
5 A Matter of Convenience: Challenges of Non-Random Data in Analyzing
Human Rights Violations in Peru and Sierra Leone
Todd Landman and Anita Gohdes
Part III Estimating Violence: Surveys
6 Using Surveys to Estimate Casualties Post-Conflict:
Developments for the Developing World
Jana Asher
7 Collecting Data on Violence: Scientific Challenges and Ethnographic Solutions
Meghan Foster Lynch
Part IV Estimating Violence: Multiple-Systems Estimation
8 Combining Found Data and Surveys to Measure Conflict Mortality
Jeff Klingner and Romesh Silva
9 Multiple-Systems Estimation Techniques for Estimating Casualties
in Armed Conflicts
Daniel Manrique-Vallier, Megan E. Price, and Anita Gohdes
Part V Mixed Methods
10 MSE and Casualty Counts: Assumptions, Interpretation, and Challenges
Nicholas P. Jewell, Michael Spagat, and Britta L. Jewell
11 A Review of Estimation Methods for Victims of the Bosnian War and
the Khmer Rouge Regime
Ewa Tabeau and Jan Zwierzchowski
Part VI The Complexity of Casualty Numbers
12 It Doesn't Add Up: Methodological and Policy Implications of
Conflicting Casualty Data
Jule Krüger, Patrick Ball, Megan Price, and Amelia Hoover Green
13 Challenges to Counting and Classifying Victims of Violence in Conflict,
Post-Conflict, and Non-Conflict Settings
Keith Krause
Part VII Conclusion
14 Moving toward More Accurate Casualty Counts
Jay D. Aronson, Baruch Fischhoff, and Taylor B. Seybolt