Limiting climate change to targets enshrined in the Paris Agreement will require both deep decarbonization of the energy system and the deployment of carbon dioxide removal at potentially large scale (gigatons of annual removal). Nations are pursuing direct air capture to compensate for inertia in the expansion of low-carbon energy systems, decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors, and address legacy emissions. Global assessments of this technology have failed to integrate factors that affect net capture and removal cost, including ambient conditions like temperature and humidity, as well as emission factors of electricity and natural gas systems. We present an integrated assessment of the global deployment potential of this technology. Employing a chemical process model, climate data, grid emission factors, and fugitive methane emission factors, we predict critical performance metrics, including carbon dioxide capture rates, and water-, energy-, and emissions-intensity of capture. Our results support investors and policy makers as they site facilities and develop credible policy instruments to support expansion.

Ahmed Abdulla is an associate professor in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and co-director of the APEX research group at Carleton University. Abdulla’s research focuses on integrating real-world constraints or considerations into energy system models. Recent modeling efforts focus on the role of disruptive energy technologies that sit at a low level of technical readiness, including energy storage, advanced nuclear power, and negative emissions technologies. In his research, Abdulla advances process modeling, systems engineering, and quantitative risk and decision analysis. His work has been published in leading journals, including Nature Climate Change, Nature Communications, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, among others. It has also been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, and Bloomberg News. He received his B.S.E. in Chemical Engineering from Princeton University, and his Ph.D. in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University.

Patrick Shorey is a researcher at Natural Resources Canada, working on electrification and energy storage. His academic background is mechanical engineering, and his MASc thesis focused on open-source modelling of gas-separation techniques applied to atmospheric carbon dioxide capture.