Needs

Since about 2007, U.S. electricity consumption has been almost flat. However, consumption has begun to grow again (Figure 1). Contributors to this observed and anticipated growth include a combination factors, including the growth of data centers, electric-vehicle charging, adoption of electric heat pumps, decarbonizing heavy industry, and production of electrofuels.

Figure 1: Evolution of U.S. electricity demand since 2050. For a variety of reasons, demand is now growing rapidly. Meeting this new demand in a resilient and affordable way will require new transmission. (Simplified plot based on data from EIA)

To decarbonize the energy system, while assuring that electricity supply remains resilient, we must break the logjam that makes it difficult (often impossible) to build new lines to move power from locations where it is produced (e.g., remote solar, hydroelectric, wind, and other generators) to the locations where it is used.

Distributed generation, end-use efficiency, and locating new loads next to generation (e.g., as Microsoft is doing in restarting the undamaged reactor at Three Mile Island) can help. However, U.S. Department of Energy argues that if the nation's economy remains strong and seeks to make serious progress in reducing CO₂ emissions, by 2050 the nation will need to more than double its existing regional and inter-regional high-voltage transmission capacity.

At the same time, it has become difficult (often impossible) to build new transmission. The incentives that the electricity industry receives from regulators and policymakers tend to incentivize local upgrades of regional and interregional transmission capacity (Figure 2).

FERC and regulatory and policymaking bodies are working to address this problem. However, most of these efforts are incremental and marginal. To solve the underlying problems, we believe that much more fundamental legal and regulatory changes are needed.