Carnegie Mellon University

Publications

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Publications:

(Underline highlights individuals in research group)

2025

  1. Wells, A., Tober, B.S., Child, S.F., Rounce, D.R., Loso, M.G., Hults, C.P., Truffer, M., Holt, J.W., and Christoffersen, M.S. “An 85-year record of glacier change and impacts on future projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska”, Nature Communications, in press.
  2. Webber, M.K., Rounce, D.R., Lopez-Cantu, T., DeGaetano, A., and Samaras, C. “Useable information for climate resilient design”, Environmental Research Letters, in press.
  3. Felikson, D., Rounce, D.R., Fasullo, J., Rodriguez, A., Adhikari, S., Buzzanga, B., Dangendorf, S., Kopp, R.E., Lammers, R.B., Reager, J.T., Brinkerhoff, D., Csatho, B., Girotto, M., Hamlington, B., Ivins, E.R., Kumar, P., Larour, E., Nerem, R.S., Nowicki, S., Schlegel, N.-J., Tesdal, J.-E., and Weathers, M. “Progress and outlook for constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations”, Nature Climate Change, in press.
  4. Weathers, M., Rounce, D.R., Fasullo, J., and Maussion, F. “Evaluating the role of internal climate variability and bias adjustment methods on decadal glacier projections”, Earth’s Future, 13, e2024EF005624, doi:10.1029/2024EF005624.
  5. Rounce, D.R., Hock, R., Prusevich, A.A., Grogan, D.S., Lammers, R.B., Huss, M., Bliss, A., and Zan, B. “Downstream hydrology reduces glaciers’ direct contribution to sea-level rise”, Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL114866, (2025), doi:10.1029/2025GL114866.
  6. Zekollari, H., Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Hock, R., Marzeion, B., Rounce, D.R., Compagno, L., Fujita, K., Huss, M., James, M., Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Lipscomb, W.H., Minallah, S., Oberrauch, M., Van Tricht, L., Champollion, N., Edwards, T., Farinotti, D., Immerzeel, W., Leguy, G., and Sakai, A. “Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C”, Science, 388(6750), pp. 979-983, (2025), doi:10.1126/science.adu4675.
  7. Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Rounce, D.R., Ultee, L., Schmitt, P., Lacroix, F., Frölicher, T., and Schleussner, C.-F. “Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5°C”, Nature Climate Change, (2025), doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02318-2.
  8. Yang, R., Hock, R., Rounce, D.R., and Kang, S. “Regional-scale response of glacier speed to seasonal runoff variations on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska”, Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL115248, (2025), doi:10.1029/2025GL115248.
  9. Robinson, K., Flowers, G., and Rounce, D.R. “Sensitivity of modelled mass balance and runoff to representations of debris and accumulation on the Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, Canada”, Journal of Glaciology, pp. 1-37, (2025), doi:10.1017/jog.2025.8.
  10. Wimberly, F., Ultee, L., Schuster, L., Huss, M., Rounce, D.R., Maussion, F., Coats, S., Mackay, J., and Holmgren, E. “Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world’s major river basins”, The Cryosphere, 19, pp. 1491-1511, (2025), doi:10/5194/tc-19-1491-2025.
  11. Aberle, R., Enderlin, E.M., Rounce, D.R., O’Neel, S., and Frield, A. “Weekly snow cover time series reveal potential biases in observed and modeled estimates of glacier change”, Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL115523, (2025), doi://10.1029/2025GL115523.
  12. Robinson, K.M., Flowers, G.E., Baraër, M., and Rounce, D.R. “Modelling glacier mass balance and runoff in the Kaskawulsh River headwaters of southwest Yukon, Canada, 1980-2022”, Hydrological Processes, 39:e70150, (2025), doi:10.1002/hyp.70150.

2024

  1. Wells, A., Rounce, D.R., Sass, L., Florentine, C., Garbo, A., Baker, E., and McNeil, C. “GNSS reflectometry from low-cost sensors for continuous in-situ contemporaneous glacier mass balance and flux divergence”, Journal of Glaciology, pp. 1-12, (2024), doi:10.1017/jog.2024.54.
  2. Zekollari, H., Huss, M., Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Rounce, D.R., Aguayo, R., Champollion, N., Compagno, L., Hugonnet, R., Marzeion, B., Mojtabavi, S., and Farinotti, D. “Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations”, The Cryosphere, 18(11), pp. 5045-5066, (2024), doi:10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024.
  3. Bhushan, S., Shean, D., Hu, J.M., Guillet, G., and Rounce, D.R. “Seasonal and annual surface mass balance for debris-covered glaciers in High-Mountain Asia from flow-corrected satellite stereo DEM time series”, Journal of Glaciology, 70, pp. 1-21, (2024), doi:10.1017/jog.2024.57.

2023

  1. Rounce, D.R., Hock, R., Maussion, F., Hugonnet, R., Kochtitzky, W., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Brinkerhoff, D., Compagno, L., Copland, L., Farinotti, D., Menounos, B., and McNabb, R.W. “Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters”, Science, 379(6627), pp. 78-83, (2023), doi:10.1126/science.abo1324. [This paper was chosen by Science as its cover article and was the subject of a research highlight in that issue of Science.]
  2. Zhang, G., Bolch, T., Yao, T., Rounce, D.R., Chen, W., Veh, G., King, O., Allen, S., Wang, M., and Wang, W. “Underestimated mass loss from lake-terminating glaciers in the greater Himalaya”, Nature Geoscience, 16, pp. 333-338, (2023), doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01150-1.
  3. Hamlington, B., Rripathi, A., Rounce, D.R., Weathers, M., Blackwood, C., Adams, K.H., Carter, J., Collini, R.C., Engeman, L., Haasnoot, M., and Kopp., R.E. “Satellite monitoring for coastal dynamic adaptation policy pathways”, Climate Risk Management, 42, 100555, (2023), doi:10.1016/j.crm.2023.100555.
  4. Schuster, L., Rounce, D.R., and Maussion, F. “Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies”, Annals of Glaciology, 64(92), pp. 1-10, (2023), doi:10.1017/aog.2023.35.
  5. Kochtitzky, W., Copland, L., Van Wychen, W., Hock, R., Rounce, D.R., Jiskoot, H., Scambos, T.A., Morlighem, M., King, M., Cha, L., Gould, L., Merrill, P.-M., Glazovsky, A., Hugonnet, R., Strozzi, T., Noël, B., Navarro, F., Millan, R., Dowdeswell, J.A., Cook, A., Dalton, A., Khan, S., and Jania, J. “Progress toward globally complete frontal ablation estimates of marine-terminating glaciers”, Annals of Glaciology, 63(87-89), pp. 1-10, (2023), doi:10.1017/aog.2023.35.
  6. Bustamante, M., Roy, J., Ospina, D., Achakulwisut, P., Aggarwal, A., Bastos, A., Broadgate, W., Canadell, J., Carr, E., Chen, D., Cleugh, H., Ebi, K., Edwards, C., Farbotko, C., Fernándex-Martínez, M., Frölicher, T., Fuss, S., Geden, O., Gruber, N., Harrington, L., Hauck, J., Hausfather, Z., Hebden, S., Hebinch, A., Huq, S., Huss, M., Jamero, M., Juhola, S., Lecocq, F., Lwasa, S., Mallick, B., Martin, M., McGreevy, S., Mirazo, P., Mukherji, A., Muttitt, G., Nemet, G., Obura, D., Okereke, C., Oliver, T., Orlove, B., Ouedraogo, N., Patra, P., Pelling, M., Pereira, L., Persson, A., Pongratz, A., Prakash, A., Rammig, A., Raymond, C., Redman, A., Reveco, C., Rockström, J., Rodrigues, R., Rounce, D., Schipper, E.L., Schlosser, P., Selomane, O., Semieniuk, G., Shin, Y.-J., Siddiqui, T., Vartika, S., Sioen, G., Sokona, Y., Stammer, D., Steinert, N., Suk, S., Sutton, R., Thalheimer, L., Thompson, V., Trencher, G., van der Geest, K., Saskia, E., Wunderling, N., Wübbelmann, T., Yin, J., Zickfeld, K., Zscheischler, J. “Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024”, Global Sustainability, 7(e19), pp. 1-30, (2023), doi:10.1017/sus.2023.25.

2022

  1. Kochtitzky, W., Copland, L., Wychen, W.V., Hugonnet, R., Hock, R., Dowdeswell, J.A., Benham, T., Strozzi, T., Glazovsky, A., Lavrentiev, I., Rounce, D.R., Millan, R., Cook, A., Dalton, A., Jiskoot, H., Cooley, J., Jania, J., and Navarro, F. “The unquantified mass loss of Northern Hemisphere marine-terminating glaciers, 2000-2020”, Nature Communications, 13:5835, (2022), doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33231-x.
  2. Byers, A.C., Shugar, D.H., Chand, M., Portocarrero, C., Shrestha, M., Rounce, D.R., and Watanabe, T. “Three recent and lesser-known glacier-related flood mechanisms in high mountain environments”, Mountain Research and Development, 42(2), pp.1-12, (2022), doi:10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00045.1.

2021

  1. Rounce, D.R., Hock, R., McNabb, R.W., Millan, R., Sommer, C., Braun, M.H., Malz, P., Maussion, F., Mouginot, J., Seehaus, T.C., and Shean, D.E. “Distributed global debris thickness estimates reveal debris significantly impacts glacier mass balance”, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091311, pp. 1-12, (2021), doi:10.1029/2020GL091311.
  2. Mishra, S., Rupper, S., Kapnick, S., Casey, K., Chan, H.G., Ciraci, E., Haritashya, U., Hayse, J., Kargel, J., Kayastha, R.B., Krakauer, N.Y., Kumar, S.V., Lammers, R., Maggioni, V., Margulis, S., Olson, M., Osmanoglu, B., Qian, Y., McLarty, S.R., Rittger, K., Rounce, D., Shean, D., Velicogna, I., Veselka, T.D., and Arendt, A., “Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia”, Frontiers in Water, 3:728156, (2021), doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.728156.
  3. Edwards, T.L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N.C., Slater, D.A., Turner, F., Smith, C.J., McKenna, C.M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J.M., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W.H., Payne, A.J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Schwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B.K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N.R., Greve, R., Hattermann, R., Hoffman, M.J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le clec’h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G.R., Little, C.M., Lowry, D.P., Malles, J.H., Martin, D.H., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O’Neill, J.F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S.F., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D.R., Rückamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.J., Shannon, S., Smith, R.S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L.D., Breedam, J.V., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T. “Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise”, Nature, 593, pp. 1-9, (2021), doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y.
  4. Taylor, C.J., Carr, J.R., and Rounce, D.R. “Spatiotemporal supraglacial pond and ice cliff changes in the Bhutan-Tibet border region from 2016 to 2018”, Journal of Glaciology, 68(267), pp. 1-13, (2021), doi:10.1017/jog.2021.76.

2020

  1. Rounce, D.R., Hock, R., and Shean, D.E. “Glacier mass change in High Mountain Asia through 2100 using the open-source Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM)”, Frontiers in Earth Science, 7(331), pp. 1-20, (2020), doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00331.
  2. Rounce, D.R., Khurana, T., Short, M.B., Hock, R., Shean, D.E., and Brinkherhoff, D.J. “Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a large-scale glacier evolution model using Bayesian inference – Application to High Mountain Asia”, Journal of Glaciology, 66(256), pp. 175-187, (2020), doi:10.1017/jog.2019.91.
  3. Westoby, M.J., Rounce, D.R., Shaw, T.E., Fyffe, C.L., Moore, P.L., Stewart, R.L., and Brock, B.W. “Geomorphological evolution of a debris-covered glacier surface”, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 45(14), pp. 3431-3448, (2020), doi:10.1002/esp.4973.
  4. Rowan, A.V., Nicholson, L.I., Quincey, D.J., Gibson, M.J., Irvine-Fynn, T.D.L., Watson, C.S., Wagnon, P., Rounce, D.R., Thompson, S.S., Porter, P.R., and Glasser, N.F. “Seasonally stable temperature gradients through supraglacial debris in the Everest region of Nepal, Central Himalaya”, Journal of Glaciology, 67(261), pp. 170-181, (2020), doi:10.1017/jog.2020.100.
  5. Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita, K., Huss, M., Immerzeel, W.W., Kraaijenbrink, P., Malles, J.H., Maussion, F., Radić, V., Rounce, D.R., Sakai, A., Shannon, S., van de Wal, R., and Zekollari, H. “Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass change”, Earth’s Future, 8, e2019EF001470, (2020), doi:10.1029/2019EF001470.
  6. Hamlington, B.D., Gardner, A.S., Ivins, E., Lenaerts, J.T.M., Reager, J.T., Trossman, D.S., Zaron, E.D., Adhikari, S., Arendt, A., Aschwanden, A., Beckley, B.D., Bekaert, D.P.S., Blewitt, G., Caron, L, Chambers, D.P., Chandanpurkar, H.A., Christianson, K., Csatho, B., Cullather, R.I., DeConto, R.M., Fasullo, J.T., Frederikse, T., Freymueller, J.T., Gilford, D.M., Girotto, M., Hammond, W.C., Hock, R., Holshuh, N., Kopp, R.E., Landerer, F., Larour, E., Menemenlis, D., Merrifield, M., Mitrovica, J.X., Nerem, R.S., Nias, I.J., Nieves, V., Nowicki, S., Pangaluru, K., Piecuch, C.G., Ray, R.D., Rounce, D.R., Schlegel, N.J., Seroussi, H., Shirzaei, M., Sweet, W.V., Velicogna, I., Vinogradova, N., Wahl, T., Wiese, D.N., and Willis. M.J. “Understanding of contemporary regional sea-level change and the implications for the future”, Reviews of Geophysics, 58, e2019RG000672, pp. 1-39, (2020), doi:10.1029/2019RG00s0672.
  7. Shean, D.E., Bhushan, S., Montesano, P., Rounce, D.R., Arendt, A., and Osmanoglu, B. “A systematic, regional assessment of High-Mountain Asia glacier mass balance”, Frontiers in Earth Science, 7(363), pp. 1-19, (2020), doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00363.
  8. Mishra, S.K., Veselka, T.D., Prusevich, A.A., Grogan, D.S., Lammers, R.B., Rounce, D.R., Ali, S.H., and Christian, M.H. “Differential impact of climate change on the hydropower economics of Karakoram and Himalayan River Basins”, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8(26), pp. 1-22, (2020), doi:10.3389/fenvs.2020.00026.

2019

  1. Kirschbaum, D., Watson, C.S., Rounce, D.R., Shugar, D.H., Kargel, J.S., Haritashya, U.K., Amatya, P., Shean, D., Anderson, E.R., and Jo, M. “The state of remote sensing capabilities of cascading hazards over High Mountain Asia”, Frontiers in Earth Science, 7(197), pp. 1-25, (2019), doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00197.
  2. Byers, A.C., Rounce,R., Shugar, D.H., Lala, J.M., Byers, E.A., and Regmi, D. “A rockfall-induced glacial lake outburst flood, Upper Barun Valley, Nepal”, Landslides, 16, pp. 533-549, (2019), doi:10.1007/s10346-018-1079-9.

2018

  1. Rounce,R., King, O., McCarthy, M., Shean, D., and Salerno, F. “Quantifying debris thickness of debris-covered glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal through inversion of a subdebris melt model”, Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 123, pp. 1-22, (2018), doi:10.1029/2017JF004395.
  2. Lala, J.M., Rounce,R., and McKinney, D.C. “Modeling the glacial lake outburst flood process chain in the Nepal Himalaya: Reassessing Imja Tsho’s Hazard”, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(7), pp. 3721-3737, (2018), doi:10.5194/hess-2017-683.

2017

  1. Rounce, D.R., Watson, C.S., and McKinney, D.C. “Identification of hazard and risk for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya using satellite imagery from 2000–2015”, Remote Sensing, 9(654), pp. 2-19, (2017), doi:10.3390/rs9070654.
  2. Rounce, D.R., Byers, A.C., Byers, E.A., and McKinney, D.C. “Brief communications: observations of a glacier outburst flood from Lhotse Glacier, Everest area, Nepal”, The Cryosphere, 11(1), pp. 443-449, (2017), doi:10.5194/tc-11-443-2017.
  3. Quincey, D., Smith, M., Rounce,R., Ross, A., King, O., and Watson, C.S. “Evaluating morphological estimates of the aerodynamic roughness of debris covered glacier ice”, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 42(15), pp. 2541-2553, (2017), doi:10.1002/esp.4198.
  4. Byers, A.C., Byers, E.A., McKinney, D.C., and Rounce, D.R. “A field-based study of impacts of the 2015 earthquake on potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal”, HIMALAYA, the Journal of the Association for Nepal and Himalayan Studies, 37(2), pp. 26-41, (2017).

2016

  1. Rounce, D.R., McKinney, D.C., Lala, J.M., Byers, A.C., and Watson, C.S. “A new remote hazard and risk assessment framework for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya”, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(9), pp. 3455-3475, (2016), doi:10.5194/hess-20-3455-2016.
  2. Kargel, J.S., Leonard, G.J., Shugar, D.H., Haritashya, U.K., Bevington, A., Fielding, E.J., Fujita, K., Geertsema, M., Miles, E.S., Steiner, J., Anderson, E., Bajracharya, S., Bawden, G.W., Breashears, D.F., Byers, A., Collins, B., Dhital, M.R., Donnellan, A., Evans, T.L., Geai, M.L., Glasscoe, M.T., Green, D., Gurung, D.R., Heijenk, R., Hilborn, A., Hudnut, K., Huyck, C., Immerzeel, W.W., Liming, J., Jibson, R., Kääb, A., Khanal, N.R., Kirschbaum, D., Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Lamsal, D., Shiyin, L., Mingyang, L.V., McKinney, D., Nahirnick, N.K., Zhuotong, N., Ojha, S., Olsenholler, J., Painter, T.H., Pleasants, M., Pratima, K.C., Yuan, Q.I., Raup, B.H., Regmi, D., Rounce,R., Sakai, A., Donghui, S., Shea, J.M., Shrestha, A.B., Shukla, A., Stumm, D., van der Kooij, M., Voss, K., Xin, W., Weihs, B., Wolfe, D., Lizong, W., Xiaojun, Y., Yoder, M.R., and Young, N. “Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake”, Science, 351(6269), pp. 1-18, (2016), doi:10.1126/science.aac8353.

2015

  1. Rounce, D.R., Quincey, D.J., and McKinney, D.C. “Debris-covered glacier energy balance model for Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier in the Everest region of Nepal”, The Cryosphere, 9(6), pp. 2295-2310, (2015), doi:10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015.
  2. Somos-Valenzuela, M.A., McKinney, D.C., Byers, A.C., Rounce,R., Portocarrero, C., and Lamsal, D. “Assessing downstream flood impacts due to a potential GLOF from Imja Lake in Nepal”, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(3), pp. 1401-1412, (2015), doi:10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015.

2014

  1. Rounce,R. and McKinney, D.C. “Debris thickness of glaciers in the Everest area (Nepal Himalaya) derived from satellite imagery using a nonlinear energy balance model”, The Cryosphere, 8(4), pp. 1317-1329, (2014), doi:10.5194/tcd-8-1317-2014.
  2. Somos-Valenzuela, M.A., McKinney, D.C., Rounce,R., and Byers, A.C. “Changes in Imja Tsho in the Mt. Everest region of Nepal”, The Cryosphere, 8(5), pp. 1661-1671, (2014), doi:10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014.

2012

  1. Rounce,R., Eck, B.J., Lawler, D.F., and Barrett, M.E. “Reducing turbidity of construction site runoff: coagulation with polyacrylamide”, Transportation Research Record, 2039(1), pp. 171-177, (2012), doi:10.3141/2309-17.