Carnegie Mellon University

Baruch Fischhoff

Baruch Fischhoff

Howard Heinz University Professor, Institute for Politics and Strategy
and Department of Engineering and Public Policy


BARUCH FISCHHOFF, Ph.D., is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Institute for Politics and Strategy and Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a BS in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an MA and PhD in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences and. He is past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis, and recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award. He was founding chair of the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee and recently chaired the National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security and currently co-chairs the National Research Council Committee on Future Research Goals and Directions for Foundational Science in Cybersecurity and the National Academy of Sciences Sackler Colloquium on “The Science of Science Communication.” He is a former member of the Eugene, Oregon Commission on the Rights of Women, Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board, where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of the American Psychological Association, the Association for Psychological Science (previously the American Psychological Society), the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Society for Risk Analysis. He has co-authored or edited eleven books, Acceptable Risk (1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (1993), Elicitation of Preferences (2000), Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach (2002), Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Science Foundations (2011), Risk: A Very Short Introduction (2011), Communicating Risks and Benefits: An Evidence-Based Guide (2011), Judgment and Decision Making (2011), Risk Analysis and Human Behavior (2011), The Science of Science Communication I (2013), and Counting Civilian Casualties (2013) and The Science of Science Communication II (2014).

Intelligence Analysis  IAT  Judgement and Decision Making  Risk Analysis 
Counting Civilian Casualties  PNAS  PNAS SSCII  Communicating Risks
Acceptable Risk  Kort Om Risk  Risk  Riesgo Una Breve Introduccion  Science Palette

Selected Publications

[For publications that are not available here, please contact Rosa Stipanovic]


Drummond, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2015). Development and validation of the Scientific Reasoning Scale. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. doi: 10.1002/bdm.1906

Fischhoff, B. (2015). Amos Tversky (1939-1996). In J. Wright (ed.), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition, vol. 24 (pp. 679-682). Oxford: Elsevier.

Fischhoff, B. (2015). Environmental cognition, perception, and attitudes. In J. Wright (ed.), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition, vol. 7 (pp. 706-712). Oxford: Elsevier.

Fischhoff, B. (2015). Four steps for effective science communication.

Fischhoff, B. (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis. Science, 350(6260), 527.
Full text:

Fischhoff, B. (2015). Risk perception and communication. In R. Detels, M. Gulliford, Karim, Q.A., & Tan, C.C. (eds.), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Sixth Edition (7.5). Oxford: Oxford University Press

Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2015). Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI). Frontiers in Psychology, 6. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00363

Schwartz, D., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Lave, L. (2015). Advertising energy saving programs: The potential environmental costs of emphasizing monetary savings. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 21(2), 158-166.

Wong-Parodi, G., & Fischhoff, B. (2015). The impacts of political cues and practical information on climate change decisions. Environmental Research Letters, 10. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034004

Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., & Strauss, B. (2015). Resilience vs. adaptation: Framing and action. Climate Risk Management.

Davis, A.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2014). Communicating uncertain experimental evidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40, 261-274.s

Fischhoff, B. (2014). Better decisions: From the lab to the real world. Policy Options, 43(3), 53-55.

Fischhoff, B. (2014). Ethical and social issues in military research and development. Telos, 169, 150-154.

Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671.

Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Farris, C., Switzer, G.E., et al. (2014). Validating a vignette-based instrument to study physician decision making in trauma triage. Medical Decision Making, 32, 242-252.

Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., & Strauss, B. (2014). A method to evaluate the usability of interactive climate change impact decision aids. Climate Change, 126, 485-493. doi:10.1007/2s10584-014-1226-9

Fischhoff, B.  (2013).  The sciences of science communicationPNAS, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. doi/10.1073/pnas.1213273110

Halpern, B.S., Longo, C., McLeod, K.L., Cooke, R., Fischhoff, B., Samhouri, J.F., & Scarborough.  (2013).  Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current.  Marine Policy, 42, 68-73.

Kadane, J.B., & Fischhoff, B.  (2013).  A cautionary note on global recalibration. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(1), 25-28.

Krishnamurti, T., & Fischhoff, B. (2013, May 22). Teenagers can handle Plan B.  Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

Schwartz, D., Fischhoff, B., Krishnamurti, T., & Sowell, F.  (2013). The Hawthorne Effect and energy awareness.  PNAS, 110(38), 15242-15246. doi/10.1073/pnas.1301687110

Farris, C. & Fischhoff, B. (2012). A decision science informed approach to sexual risk and non-consentClinical and Translational Science, 5, 482-485.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012, Summer).  Communicating uncertainty: Fulfilling the duty to informIssues in Science and Technology, 29, 63-70.

Fischhoff, B. (2012). Good decisions require good communication. Drug Safety, 35, 983-993.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012, February).  Decision making: Behaviorally realistic solutions to environmental problemslivebetter, no. 17.

Fischhoff, B.  (2012).  Robyn Mason Dawes (1936-2010).  American Psychologist, 67, 319-320.

Fischhoff, B., & Eggers, S. (2012). Questions of competence: The duty to inform and the limits to choice. In E. Shafir (ed.), The behavioral foundations of policy (pp. 217-230).  Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Mohan, D., Rosengart, M.R., Farris, C., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., & Barnato, A.E.  (2012). Sources of non-compliance with clinical practice guidelines in trauma triage: a decision science study.  Implementation Science, 7, 103.


Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else).  American Psychologist, 66, 520-531.

Fischhoff, B., Brewer, N., & Downs, J.S.  (eds.).  (2011). Communicating risks and benefits: An evidence-based user’s guide.  Washington, DC: Food and Drug Administration. 

Fischhoff, B., & Chauvin, C. (eds.).  (2011).  Intelligence analysis: Behavioral and social science foundations.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

Fischhoff, B., & Kadvany, J.  (2011).  Risk: A very short introduction.  Oxford: Oxford University Press. 

Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The emotions of the nuclear experts.  Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

National Research Council.  (2011). Intelligence analysis for tomorrow.  Washington, DC: Author (Consensus Report).

Pidgeon, N., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011). The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks.   Nature Climate Change, 1(1), 35-41.

Silver, R.C., & Fischhoff, B.  (2011).  What should we expect after the next attack.  American Psychologist, 66, 567-572.

Fischhoff, B. (2010). Judgment and decision making. Wily Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science. New York: Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., Millstein, S.G, & Halpern-Felsher, B.L. (2010). Adolescents' perceived risk of dying. Journal of Adolescent Health, 46(3), 265-269.

John, L.K., & Fischhoff, B. (2010). Changes of heart: Assessing the stability of medical choices with a naturalistic task. Medical Decision Making, 30, 388-397.

Kaptan, G., & Fischhoff, B. (2010). Sticky decisions: Peanut butter in a time of Salmonella. Emerging Infectious Disease, 16, 900-904.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Güvenç, Ü., Fischhoff, B., Armstrong, C.M., & Caruso, D. (2009). Communicating about xenotransplanation: Models and scenarios. Risk Analysis, 29(8), 1105-1115.

Fischhoff, B. (2009, 17 February). The nuclear energy industry's communication problem. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved January 2010 from

Fischhoff, B. (2009). Public competence in science. People and Science, 1(2), 27.

Fischhoff, B. (2009). Risk Perception and Communication. In R. Detels, R. Beaglehole, M.A. Lansang, and M. Gulliford (Eds), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Fifth Edition (pp. 940-952). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Reprinted in N.K. Chater (Ed.), Judgement and Decision Making. London: Sage.

Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (2009). The science and practice of risk ranking. Horizons, 10(3), 40-47.

Casman, E. & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Risk communication planning for the aftermath of a plague bioattack. Risk Analysis, 28(5), 1327-42.

Downs, J. S., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Parents' vaccination comprehension and decisions. Vaccine, 26, 1595-1607.

Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28, 12-28.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Sageman, M. (2008) Mutually Assured Support: A Security Doctrine for Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Threats. In R. Clarke (ed.), Terrorism Briefing for the New President, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 618, 160-167.

Krishnamurti, T.P., Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). The impact of over-the-counter availability of "Plan B" on teens' contraceptive decision making. Social Science and Medicine, 67, 618-627.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007) Individual Differences in Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92, 938-956.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Communicating with the public: Before, during, and after emergencies. (in Chinese) China Emergency Management, 16-19.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). Non-Persuasive Communication about Matters of Greatest Urgency: Climate Change. Environmental Science & Technology, 41, 7204-7208.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). An early history of hindsight research. Social Cognition, 25, 10-13.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19.

Florig, K., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individuals' decisions affecting radiation exposure after a nuclear explosion. Health Physics, 92, 475-483.

National Research Council. (2007). Risk comparisons. Scientific Reviews of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget (pp.37-8). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Apt, J. & Fischhoff, B. (2006). Power and people. Electricity Journal, 19(9), 17-25.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Brilliant, L., & Caruso, D. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks. Global Public Health 1(2), 178-193.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Communication: Getting straight talk right. Harvard Business Review, 8.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Modeling: Visualizing your vulnerabilities. Harvard Business Review, 8-11.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 33, 133-151.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Cognitive processes in stated preference methods. In K-G. Maler & J. Vincent (Eds.), Handbook of Environmental Economics (pp. 937-968). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision research strategies. Health Psychology, 21(4), S1-S8.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, August 7). A hero in every aisle seat. New York Times. Retrieved from

Fischhoff, B. (2005). The psychological perception of risk. In D. Kamien (ed.), McGraw-Hill Handbook of Terrorism and Counter-terrorism (p. 463-492). New York: McGraw-Hill.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Thinking about the indeterminate. Review of R.A. Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, (New York: Oxford University Press). Issues in Science and Technology, 21(4), 82-84.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, October 2). We need the right words to weather the storm. Washington Post. Retrieved from

Fischhoff, B. (2005), President's columns from the Society for Risk Analysis RISK Newsletter.

Parker, A. & Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 1-27.

Downs, J. S. Murray, P. J., Bruine de Bruin, W., White, J. P., Palmgren, C., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). An interactive video program to reduce adolescent females' STD risk: A randomized controlled trial. Social Science and Medicine, 59, 1561-1572.

Eggers, S.L., & Fischhoff, B. (2004). Setting Policies for Consumer Communications: A Behavioral Decision Research Approach. Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 23, 14-27.

Gregory, R., Fischhoff, B., Butte, G., & Thorne, S. (2003). A multi-channel stakeholder consultation process for transmission deregulation. Energy Policy, 31, 1291-9.

Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R., Small, D., & Lerner, J. (2003). Evaluating the success of terror risk communications. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 1(4), 255-258.

Fischhoff, B., & Wesseley, S. (2003). Managing patients with inexplicable health problems. British Medical Journal, 326, 595-597.

Löfstedt, R., Fischhoff, B., & Fischhoff, I. (2002). Precautionary principles: General definitions and specific applications to genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21, 381-407.

Fischhoff, B. (2000). Scientific management of science? Policy Sciences, 33, 73-87.

Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C., Dawes, R.M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189-205.

Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S.J., Sox, H.C., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000) Women's understanding of the mammography screening debate. Archives of Internal Medicine, 160(10), 1434-40.

Fischhoff, B. (1999). What do patients want? Help in making effective choices. Effective Clinical Practice, 2, 198-200.

Fischhoff, B., Downs, J., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1998). Adolescent vulnerability: A framework for behavioral interventions. Applied and Preventive Psychology, 7, 77-94.

Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232-248.

Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of process. Risk Analysis, 15, 137-145.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). Acceptable risk: A conceptual proposal. Risk: Health, Safety & Environment, 1, 1-28.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Fischhoff, B. (1993). Transaction analysis: A framework and an application to insurance decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 53-69.

Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault. American Psychologist,47(4), 577-588.

Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M.J., & Furby, L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.) Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19-60). London, UK: Routledge

Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in there? American Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847.

Fischhoff, B. (1990). Psychology and public policy: Tool or tool maker? American Psychologist, 45, 657-663.

Furby, L., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M. (1989). Judged effectiveness of common rape prevention and self-defense strategies. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 4, 44-64

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Risk: A guide to controversy. Appendix to National Research Council. Improving risk communications (pp. 211-319).Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1988). Measuring values: A conceptual framework for interpreting transactions with special reference to contingent valuation of visibility. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 147-184

Fischhoff, B., MacGregor, D., & Blackshaw, L. (1987). Creating categories for databases. International Journal of Man-Machine Systems, 27, 33-63.

Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798

Fischhoff, B., Watson, S., & Hope, C. (1984). Defining risk. Policy Sciences, 17, 123-139.

Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823-843.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Acceptable risk: The case of nuclear power. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2, 559-575.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Predicting frames. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory & Cognition, 9, 113-116.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1983). Psychological dimensions of climatic change. In R. S. Chen, E. Boulding and S. H. Schneider (Eds.), Social science research and climate change (pp. 183-203). Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.

Fischhoff, B. (1981). Hot air: The psychology of CO-induced climatic change. In J. Harvey (Ed.), Cognition, social behavior and the environment (pp. 163-184). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment. In R. A. Shweder and D. W. Fiske (Eds.), New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, (4) pp. 79-93. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S. & Combs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy Sciences, 9(2), 127-152.

Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.

Fischhoff, B. (1977). Cost-benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenance. Policy Sciences, 8(2), 177-202.

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R. (1974). Failure has many fathers. Review of I. Janis, Victims of Groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes. Reprinted (1976) in Policy Sciences, 7(3), 388-393.

Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299.

Administrative Assistant

Rosa Stipanovic